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#82
04-14-2005, 03:58 PM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
I agree with tommy that there is a very high chance that you set is no good here. He makes a very valid point that a truly excellent player is more likely to go nine bets with a huge draw than a lower set. However, everyone gets out of line once in a while.
A very good player would realize he is beat and check raise the river as a bluff enough times to make a call in this spot profitable. It is not only the player who got sucked out on who is attached to what is in the middle. Temporary insanity and lack of respect for the lower stakes and opposition could explain getting out of line with a set on the turn. "Excellent Player" status can explain a river checkraise if that is the only way to win the pot. A 160 investment to fold the best hand in a 4K plus pot doesnt have to succeed very often to be positive EV. So call, lol. My two cents FJM 
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#83
05-13-2005, 03:53 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
Based on the turn action he has a smaller set easily 90+% of the time. No way does the river check raise lower the chance of him having a smaller set to below even 75% and hes not gonig to fold for another bet given the pot size. At least one more raise is correct here for sure.
Also, statements like "Pot is big enough at this point" are completely meaningless. And a statement like "And, I no longer held the best possible hand" is almost totally meaningless and just plain scared thinking. -Ezcheeze
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#84
05-13-2005, 04:12 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
[ QUOTE ]
Based on the turn action he has a smaller set easily 90+% of the time. No way does the river check raise lower the chance of him having a smaller set to below even 75% and hes not gonig to fold for another bet given the pot size. At least one more raise is correct here for sure. [/ QUOTE ]you say "for sure," but its pretty obvious to anyone who can play that this is obviously untrue... sorry.
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#85
05-13-2005, 06:05 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
Would anyone ever consider checking behind on the river? If our pro "knows" what hero has, what is he going to call with? I'm not so sure this is a value bet situation. Though from the turn action, its obvious that he hates money, so I guess I wouldn't put it past him.
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#86
05-13-2005, 07:08 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
"Obviously untrue" yet you give no reasons. Gee thanks for that. Let me try to be clearer. When he goes that many bets on the turn it's much more likely he has a lower set as opposed to waking up with a str8 flush draw he for some reason decided not to jam the flop with but is now more than happy to throw money away with. He could have picked up a lower str8 draw on the turn but going that many bets with the str8 flush draw on the turn really isn't synonomous with not jamming the flop with a flush draw.
The river check raise is strong but just not strong enough IMO to not raise again given the flop, turn, and river action all together. Sure it could all change based on who the player is but what I'm saying is the most likely scenario with no specific reads on the player since the original post didn't include any info other than that the player was a tourny pro which means very little in terms of how the player plays.
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#87
05-13-2005, 07:16 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
I'd go ahead and still bet since I put him on a lower set on the turn and even though he "knows" what I have, I don't know many mortals who could fold a set there after putting in so many bets. I do think a set is a more likely holding for him than the str8 flush draws by a wide margin.
-Ezcheeze
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#88
05-13-2005, 08:04 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
[ QUOTE ]
Don't learn from that advice. It's poor. If there is even the slightest sliver of a chance he could have JJ or something else, a call is RESOUNDINGLY correct. The only way I could be 100% positive here is if he turned his flush faceup while I'm pondering a call. Folding on the river here would be a big mistake. Jeff [/ QUOTE ] I really love it when posters don't realise who they are correcting.
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#89
05-13-2005, 08:06 AM
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Re: 80/160 GAME AT BELLAGIO
[ QUOTE ]
there is no way i fold river in limit hold em...no way... that is a horrible mistake....if i am wrong, I blow a huge pot...i could have just checked the river...no problem...i believed he had JJ...no way do i fold to a check raise...for 1 more bet....if it was big bet poker, and we had huge stacks, if they did not get all in on the turn, i check river if i don't want to call a raise.... never fold...purely stupid play to fold no offense intended [/ QUOTE ] ... general rules.
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