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#31
12-20-2004, 06:28 PM
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Re: RESULTS of this hand, what they had
Looking at these guys hand selection and how they bet, no way am i folding on the turn in the future.
This looks like a fantastic game. b 
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#33
12-20-2004, 08:12 PM
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Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
[ QUOTE ]
You are currently getting 3-1 on a 5-1 shot that you can most likely only give 7 outs too making it 7-1. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Actually 7 outs is about 5.5-1. Your also not really counting the money in the pot already, plus some implied odds. [/ QUOTE ] 7 outs in 46 unseen cards. odds of 1 of those 7 cards coming up on the river? 46/7 6.57-1 I generally just round up. I was actually taking into account all money that will go into the pot. And I was assuming no one would fold for 3 bets cold back to them, and that no one would cap it. If i dont assume those things, the odds to call get much worse. I dont see any evidence that these opponents will put in more than 1 bet each on average on the river, so I assumed 1 bet each. [ QUOTE ] Maybe 8 outs making it 6-1 but I think 7 is right [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 8 outs is better than 5-1. [/ QUOTE ] 8 outs is 5.75-1 [ QUOTE ] It looks like the whole table just woke up on the turn. Generally a bet, raise and reraise in front of you means somebody connected with the board. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Which can indicate that your drawing very live if the flush hits. The main thing i'd look out for is if the board paired. It's also bad to fold here given the table and opponent description. Which is 'none'. [/ QUOTE ] I agree that the table description is hazy at best, but i'm assuming as the best generic play here folding is best. I havent even taken into consderation the chance of a higher flush being out which will occur sometimes with this action. Note that there is only 1 card left to come. And we are calling 3 big bets cold, not 1 big bet. This is a -ev call if you do not include the back door straight draw.
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#34
12-20-2004, 09:30 PM
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Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
You are not missing anything. It is razpor thin on the turn, there are most likely only 7 clean flush outs. If you felt sure yuo would get called and overcalled on the river if you made your hand with a clean diamond then the call is ok.
Everyone advocating that this is a weak hand on the flop is totally wrong. Think about it. If you flopped a ten high four flush against 3 sure callers every hand you played for the res of your life you would be a millionaire in a year. Will you soetimes miss, will you sometimes lose to higher flush, will the board sometimes pair? Sure. But it is still +ev in these situaions. If he has the best draw all flops bets are making him money. I would even bet in this situation he absoulutely has the best draw. The single bet flop would lead me to believe I was on the best diamond draw, and the second clup on the turn adn the subseuent action would indicate sets and pairs that just picked up club draws. As I mentioned before, getting as much money in on the flop in a favorable odds scenario makes your calls on fourth street less expensive when you miss. There would be no argument about the EV of the turn call if he go 4 small bets from 3 players in on the Flop. FJM
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#35
12-20-2004, 09:59 PM
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Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
[ QUOTE ]
7 outs in 46 unseen cards. odds of 1 of those 7 cards coming up on the river? 46/7 6.57-1 I generally just round up. [/ QUOTE ] This is incorrect. By your logic, if I have a 46-out draw on the turn, with 46 unseen cards, then 46/46 = 1:1 odds. However, 1:1 odds represent a 23-outer, not a 46-outer. The correct way to represent the odds for an 8-outer on the turn, for instance, would be: (Number of unseen cards - Outs):Outs (46-8):8 or 4.75:1 Entendido?
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#37
12-20-2004, 11:28 PM
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Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
Haha yea I just looked that over and i wrecked the math, guess im drunk ::shrug::
I agree with putting money in on the flop, the turn action is where im thinking its close. 37:9 4-1 on the turn... With the straight draw its an easy call, but the 10 high flush draw alone seems at least close.
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#38
12-21-2004, 04:27 AM
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Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
[ QUOTE ]
8 outs is 5.75-1 [/ QUOTE ] No, it's not. 46 cards left. 8-38. It's actually under 5-1. [ QUOTE ] I agree that the table description is hazy at best, but i'm assuming as the best generic play here folding is best. I havent even taken into consderation the chance of a higher flush being out which will occur sometimes with this action. Note that there is only 1 card left to come. And we are calling 3 big bets cold, not 1 big bet. This is a -ev call if you do not include the back door straight draw. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I dont see any evidence that these opponents will put in more than 1 bet each on average on the river, so I assumed 1 bet each. [/ QUOTE ] There's no evidence either way for what these players may have. You don't err on the side of folding good draws against unknowns on a board like this. b
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#39
12-21-2004, 04:33 AM
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Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
[ QUOTE ]
With the straight draw its an easy call, but the 10 high flush draw alone seems at least close. [/ QUOTE ] I will agree that it's close with just the flush draw. Meaning, whichever way you go likely won't matter much in the longrun. Therefore, err on the side of calling. Especially against unknowns. b
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#40
12-21-2004, 04:37 AM
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Re: Terrible call on the turn? and question about pot odds
[ QUOTE ]
The single bet flop would lead me to believe I was on the best diamond draw, [/ QUOTE ] Or that the bettor is the only other one with a possible solid flush draw. I'd c/r the flop, but i wouldn't cap it with this hand. You have to use a little discretion with smaller flush draws. b
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