$55: When to do a continuation bet out of position vs 2 opponents?

[11t]

Firstly, I wouldn't classify open raising 88 from CO-1 as "stealing blinds". Secondly, If button calls, and a blind comes along and this flops and the blind checks I would be far more inclined to throw out a continuation bet.

The pot is ~300, you have ~900 left behind. A contination bet here is going to cost you ~200 chips or roughly ~23% of your remaining stack. With two people left to act I am not too big a fan of throwing out a CB here.

EDIT: and I am actually open-raising this probably 75% of the time. 99/TT is prolly 100% open-raising.

[Khern]

I've been folding preflop. Other than hitting a set or other, rare, favorable board, I don't have a plan if I see resistance... except for fold. I don't like to limp and let someone else take the lead, and I don't like to look like I'm stealing here. I'm not sure how this differs too much from limp-stealing with any 2 (and I've noticed a lot of people doing that from the button lately.)

That's just my take, I might be horribly wrong...

John

firstly, this is level 2, so if you want the blinds and are trying to force the others out (unless they have very decent or premium hands), then that is what you are doing, you are forcing the others out of this action, unless they have a good hand (i.e. stealing blinds).

secondly, you won't CB OOP, but it appears you will with position, in which 1/2 of the time you will not even get an opportunity to CB, because one of the other 2 will lead out. Any flop misses any player 2/3 of the time. To not CB on this board is a sin. Why do you think that just because the board has 2 overs that it hit your opponents? You don't think they could have been on Ax, or JJ and be forced to fold to your CB. To say "i will bet this hand 75% of the time, but not CB ever" is really donking off your chips. That means any time there is an over card against 2 opponents your giving the hand up, then why did you bet preflop in the first place? Oh yeah, that's right, so you could at least get the blinds (in level 2 at that).

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
Firstly, I wouldn't classify open raising 88 from CO-1 as "stealing blinds". Secondly, If button calls, and a blind comes along and this flops and the blind checks I would be far more inclined to throw out a continuation bet.

The pot is ~300, you have ~900 left behind. A contination bet here is going to cost you ~200 chips or roughly ~23% of your remaining stack. With two people left to act I am not too big a fan of throwing out a CB here.

EDIT: and I am actually open-raising this probably 75% of the time. 99/TT is prolly 100% open-raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Listen to this man - he has it spot on. I would raise here most of the time and not cb this flop. It's just too likely one of them has a piece of it.

tigerite,

What "piece of it" is significant though? Barring the dreaded set, the only thing your worried about really is a Q. A decent CB will price out draws and make a 9 fold. I like rasing 88 in CO-1 here and you and 11t seem to agree. If this raise is not a "steal" per se, then a CB is likely your only weapon post-flop unless you make your 8:1 set.

[tigerite]

The problem with betting though is you open up the possibility for solid, good players to push with a draw, or at the very least re-raise, and then you can easily fold the best hand. You have a very marginal hand here at best, that even if it is ahead, doesn't rate to be very often by the river, and you leave yourself very exposed to being bluffed either on this street or later ones. This is what I don't like about the CB here very much.

Understood. But then you are raising PF pretty much to steal or flop a set.

[Snarf]

[ QUOTE ]
Firstly, I wouldn't classify open raising 88 from CO-1 as "stealing blinds". Secondly, If button calls, and a blind comes along and this flops and the blind checks I would be far more inclined to throw out a continuation bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Though I'm glad to see you're not trying to take down T45 in blinds in the pot - I'm curious exactly what WOULD you classify this raise as?

88 plays so poorly to soo many flops...I don't mind the raise as a play for chips if you're willing to bluff out the rest of the hand....

I can kinda see where you're coming from...Raise the pair for 'best hand at moment' value???? Is that what you're thinking? But then check/fold the flop when the situation ends up going south on ya.

I just think that the situation here will go more south than north in these spots....

then again...I suck...

[tewall]

I think perhaps he's not against the idea of often CB'ing, but just not against this particular flop.

[tewall]

I play at a lower level, but I find a half-pot bet to be very profitable. I'm not smart enough to know which flops to do it on and which not, so I always do it. I don't have to worry about randomizing my play because of the level of the competition, which you proabably do. I haven't kept track of how often it takes down the pot, but I'm quite sure it's over half the time -- way over 1/3 of the time anyway. It's so profitable I don't worry about the times it doesn't work. I don't know if this would hold at the $55's, though.

I don't see how 88 is playable unless the plan is to make a continuation bet some % of the time if you miss. I think Phil Gordon suggests a continuation bet 65% of the time, which includes both flops which are good in the mix, so you'd follow up with a flop where you whiffed some % of the time and check-fold the rest.