Unsure of my line with QQ

[NobodysFreak]

I'm not sure what you're getting at. You don't think anyone has the A of diamonds?

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what you're getting at. You don't think anyone has the A of diamonds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would I?

[NobodysFreak]

What 3-betting hands pre-flop are you putting BB on that he bets with on that flop, calls our raise and then checks on the turn when an A hits? I think we're begging to get check-rasied on this turn by betting. I think BB made the mistake of checking giving us the chance to get a free card and improve to what could be our 1 out.

[cold_cash]

JJ, TT, 99

So if the river comes say, the 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], you're going to fold to a bet?

If the answer is no, then bet the turn.

If the answer is yes, then you're folding the winner a lot in a big pot.

(And actually, if you bet the turn and don't get raised and the river bricks, you should probably bet again.)

I don't see how you can say he's holding an Ace here with 100% certainty.

[Shillx]

Your preflop/flop parlay is pretty interesting. The turn play is interesting too, but there almost certainly has to be a mistake on the 1st two streets.

IMO a flop raise isn't correct here though it is close. If you had JJ it would clearly be wrong. Look at why we don't raise the flop with JJ...

1) If we are beat by AA-QQ we just lose more.

2) If our hand is good, the PF 3-bettor and the other players outs will almost always overlap. Let me show you what I mean.

If we have JJ, the PF3 has AK and one of the callers has KT, we don't have to protect anything since the caller is drawing dead to running T-T/K-T. We are going to lose if a king slides no matter if the caller folds or not so there is no reason to get him out.

3) It can easily put us back into a bad spot should the PF3 make it 3 bets on the flop (obviously we call the 3-bet). We would be getting something like 12:2 to calldown from the turn bet, but if his range is KK+/AK-AQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] we are ~6:1 to lose the pot.

The turn play in the hand as played should be pretty clear. He can't hold the key blocker (A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) unless he has us beat now. If he doesn't hold the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] he has to be worried that we hold it and that makes a bluff less likely. So we bet and see what happens.

If the turn were the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] we would be in a worse spot since A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Qx or A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Jx could easily take a shot at us. He can rule out AA/KK when we don't cap preflop and he is holding the flush draw blocker (so now he knows we have an underpair).

[NobodysFreak]

For the sake of it, I ran pokerstove and gave BB anything from 99-AA, AQ-AK which given our read seems fairly likely. I randomized UTG+2 because he can really have any two cards here, but I'll even narrow it further later.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,827,672 games 1.252 secs 1,459,801 games/sec

Board: 2d 8d 2s Ac
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.9856 % 30.16% 00.83% { QcQs }
Hand 2: 17.5596 % 17.29% 00.26% { random }
Hand 3: 51.4549 % 50.40% 01.05% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

If we remove AQo from BBs betting range and give UTG+2 any pair, any suited, and anybroadway cards we get this result.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,731,095 games 21.281 secs 316,295 games/sec

Board: 2d 8d 2s Ac
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.8574 % 30.98% 00.88% { QcQs }
Hand 2: 20.8683 % 20.42% 00.45% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 47.2744 % 46.06% 01.21% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

Even if we could narrow UTG+2 hand further, I don't think it would give us an equity edge and I don't think we're getting enough fold equit with two opponents one of whom happens to be very passive.

I never advocated folding the river for a bet. I just think one of the two made a mistake here by allowing us to check along. Bet folding isn't a horrible option, but why put ourselves in that position if we can get to a showdown in what appears to be a tough situation for the same price?

grunch

Cap preflop. Flop looks good and I bet the turn to, probably folding to a checkraise but the fold to a check raise here is read dependant since alot of people love c/r when an A hits and don't put you on one.