$55: Do you push with 1 limper at 300 blinds?

[raptor517]

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If somebody else pushed all-in ahead of me, there is a good chance I would fold.

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lol, thats a hell of a lot different than a LIMP. there is nothing to study. nothing to look at. you cant take one occurance and try to challenge a whole analysis of proven sng theory. put him on a limp range. take yer aq up against that push range. factor in the 750 chips you get if he folds. i mean cmon man, this really isnt that hard. its an easy push. thats all there is too it. holla

[pergesu]

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Pergs, I'm sorry, but I think you have it backwards. There's a reason we wait until the bubble to start pushing like a maniac. Hint: should you be more liberal with your pushes and calls when it's 10 players rather than 4?

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Wrong.

I'm going to take you through an exercise. It's entirely optional, but you'd be wise to do it, because it will lead you to a key concept of SNG play.

Check out the ICM calculator.

Enter 5 stacks of 2000 - everybody, amazingly, has equal stacks in this particular tourney. Each player's equity is 20%. That ought to make perfect sense. Now make one of the stacks 4000 and one of them 0 - you just doubled up. What is your equity now? What was the change in equity?

Now let's look at what happens when you make it to the bubble with equal stacks, so enter 2500 chips for four players. Equity is 25%. Now double yourself up and calculate the equity. What's your new equity, and what's the change?

The payout structure of a tournament makes the bubble a very peculiar beast. It's not enough to say "I must be tighter 10-handed than 5-handed, therefore I must be tighter 5-handed than 4-handed." It's our opponents limited (or even nonexistent) knowledge of bubble concepts that allows us to easily exploit their mistakes. Learn the nuances of bubble play and your ROI will improve immensely.

[ezmogee]

What you're not realizing is that AQ is not "pushing like a maniac." besides 99-AK there is no other hand I'd rather have. Further, with blinds at this level, there's virtually no chance your opponent has 99-AK.

I'm somewhat shocked he'd limp here with 88 rather than push...I'm not sure you'll see that too often. Frequently, you'll have a bad player find QJs early and just think to himself that MAYBE he'll get to see a cheap flop for 25% of his chips...This is even MORE reason why I push this AQ.

What everyone else has said is correct. At WORST you're a coinflip. At best you're against AT or even QJ.

The truth of the matter is that at best you're still going to lose this hand 33% of the time. That's a lot. Would you play this hand any differently with AK? Because the outcome will be the same.

I've looked through your argument, but having played 50 sngs a day for several months and done all the math before, I can guarantee you this is an easy push. I also think that folding equity is slightly higher than what some pople have posted...

[lotus776]

agreed, the farther away from the bubble you are the more you can vary your play according to the blinds. Obviously your stack is huge part of what determines your play but you're in prime position to even release a hand like AQo. Depends on your justification of the likelyhood that someone will call with a prime hand. I think the push was definately called for in this situation.

good luck

[MegaBet]

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Couple responses to people. I do not think this hand is quite as easy as everyone is making it out to be. There's a reason I lost this hand and this tournament, and it's not because I got sucked out on. It's not a bad beat post.

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Of course it's not a bad beat post. You didn't get bad beated or sucked out on.

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MegaBet, it is possible to fold. I considered it. If somebody else pushed all-in ahead of me, there is a good chance I would fold. When you say you think limpers fold 60% of the time, is this from experience in the $55's, and are you talking about 300 chip blinds, where the limper would be left with less than 5BB and is only 2 away from the BB, where he would be left with 3BB after the blinds pass through him? Because in this situation, I se people folding less than 20% of the time.

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You are giving people far too much credit. I've seen (a lot of) people far more pot committed by limping and folding to an all-in.

[llabb]

I respect the posters' opinions here, which is why I wanted discussion on this. I just think there is more to it.

Please let me state again: I understand SNG theory, and why this is a push. That is why I pushed. Please stop giving me very basic reasons for why it is a push. I'm holding a premium hand, I put him on a range, yadda yadda yadda. I get it. I understand what people have been saying. If I were in the same spot again, I would most likely (grudgingly) push all over again. But I believe I should think strongly about playing it differently, hence this post.

Where I seem to disagree with other posters is on what the limp means and how much FE I have. Those are the keys. If there is 0 FE, then pushing is equivalent to calling his push, which is -EV. At this level of blinds and stack sizes, I read a limp primarily as a pocket. Aces usually fold, raise, or push, depending on the kicker quality. I do not believe I have much FE against a pocket, at these blinds. Please describe your experience against other hands if you feel otherwise. Have you really seen QJ limp in this spot? If one were to think he did not have much FE, I think you could see why it might not be a push.

[llabb]

One other thing. I get why everyone else thinks it's so easy, and what their reasons are. Except I don't get Perg's rationale. I respect your opinions, but can you explain more clearly what you mean?

I understand ICM, but the data leads me in a different direction than you. You seem to be looking at the greater equity locked up with fewer people, and the smaller % change that doubling up effects. Somehow this seems to mean to you to be looser with more people, and tighter with fewer people.

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You should be more liberal with your pushes and calls when there are 5 players than you would with 4, because you don't have nearly as much equity locked up.

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Do you really mean that you should be more liberal with more people, say 7, and tighter when it's down to 6, a little tighter when it's down to 5, a little tighter when it's down to 4, etc?

Please elucidate.

[pergesu]

Look at the equity when you're 6-handed and double through, and maybe you'll understand things better.

I'm not saying to be looser with more opponents. In fact the more opponents you have the tighter you ought to be, given small enough blinds. But, as I said, you'll need to be looser 5-handed than you would be 4-handed.

I've given you everything you need to know why this is. Now you just need to compare three numbers and figure out what's going on.

[MrX]

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Call or push, you were going to lose the hand anyway. You can't fold AQ in this situation. At least with a push you have a chance to get them to fold. In my experience they will fold about (guessing) 60% of the time when limping.

When you have your opponent covered, a neat trick is to raise exactly their chip stack. It probably adds about a 5% chance they will fold. Hey, it's something!

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Or be a jerk and raise to their stack minus one chip.

X

[lorinda]

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Or be a jerk and raise to their stack minus one chip.

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This is better if they have a bad connection.

Lori