WSOP Field Bet

[llabb]

275 top players listed. Everyone else is the field. Field bet to win is 1-5. Meaning you have to lay 5-1, betting $500 for every $100 you want to win.

At these odds, any thoughts on if the field bet is still good? How to analyze this?

[bugstud]

I wonder if you can place a very large field bet then hedge the remainder after day 1

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
275 top players listed. Everyone else is the field. Field bet to win is 1-5. Meaning you have to lay 5-1, betting $500 for every $100 you want to win.

At these odds, any thoughts on if the field bet is still good? How to analyze this?

[/ QUOTE ]

David Sklansky suggests that even the best pros don't have more than twice the chance of winning of the average player. The luck factor is very high in no-limit holdem unless the money is very deep, which it only is in the very beginning and at the very end. When no-limit was basically non-existent outside of a few tournaments, the few players who really understood no-limit play had a huge advantage in the WSOP. With no-limit ring games, SNGs and tournaments available 24-7 online and also with live B&M no-limit games accessible to many players, far more people have no-limit and tournament experience than used to be the case. There may be a few rich people and celebrities who can hardly play but just buy a seat anyway and a few internet maniacs who win a seat through luck, but there will be far more Internet NL holdem tournament specialists and amateurs who are strong B&M no-limit players who are nearly as good as the best pros.

Even if assume that all 275 of those players are as good as Sklansky's estimate of twice the average player's chances, there would still be less than a 10% chance that one of them would win it. I would take 1-5 odds. If a site offered 1-2 odds, I would bet thousands of dollars on the field.

[ontogeny]

At TradeSports they are offering futures on the top 200 players. No field bet. You're betting on which of the 200 will finish the highest, even if none of them wins.

The thing is, you can bet either side. So you can put money on Ivey, or against Raymer, or whatever.

Pretty cool.

TradeSports.com

[llabb]

Yes, the Tradesports odds are pretty good if you simply want a last longer bet in a 100-200 player field. Fine to bet on if you want to play a hunch, but the odds seem pretty close to correct on either side of the play.

What I'm trying to figure out is if there's any value out there for the field bet on everyone else, considering a 6k+ entry field or so.

There were so many people who wanted a field bet in previous WSOP Odds threads. What happened to you all - can anyone evaluate these 1-5 field odds?

[lefty rosen]

You have a valid point the skill difference is minute these days. It's all what the micro and low limit grinders can afford to play. There are plenty of unknown players that are not much worse than top players.......

[popniklas]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
David Sklansky suggests that even the best pros don't have more than twice the chance of winning of the average player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not more than twice? Are you sure Sklanky has said this? That contradicts what Harrington says (in HOH vol. 1) about how much a tourney buy-in can be worth to a top player.

[llabb]

Additional WSOP bets to consider:

(1) Field bet on no pro (of 275 listed) making the final table: 8-5 (+160)

(2) Highest finish in the money - no listed player out of 38 pros makes the money: 11-1 (+1100)

(3) Highest female finish in the money - no listed player out of 13 women makes the money: 3-1 (+300).

Could be some good plays here. Analysis?

[zipppy]

[ QUOTE ]
Additional WSOP bets to consider:

(1) Field bet on no pro (of 275 listed) making the final table: 8-5 (+160)

(2) Highest finish in the money - no listed player out of 38 pros makes the money: 11-1 (+1100)

(3) Highest female finish in the money - no listed player out of 13 women makes the money: 3-1 (+300).

Could be some good plays here. Analysis?

[/ QUOTE ]

What site did you find these on? I looked on tradesports.com but didn't see these bets.

thanks, Zip

[llabb]

Will you please give some analytical commentary on which of these (if any) would be good wagers, if I give you the site?

Thanks in advance.

WSEX.com