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#51
06-24-2005, 10:41 PM
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Re: Do bookies respect Gigabet?
[ QUOTE ]
A post with 47 replies gets over 10,000 views in under a day... incredible. From now on, I'm putting the word Gigabet in the title of everyone of my posts, even the ones in the sports forum. [/ QUOTE ] You'll notice a couple of things: - This post has about twice as many views as Gigabet's "Almost there . . ." post, a fan favorite, and also twice as many as Gigabet's exposition of his "block" strategy for SNGs, and both of those posts were actually written by Gigabet. Seems rather odd. You could write the first one off to a smaller forum population when it was written, but the second was written just a couple of weeks ago. - There was betting on this page reaching 10,000 views. I think somebody made an unwise bet. 
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#52
06-24-2005, 11:37 PM
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Re: Do bookies respect Gigabet?
Now that the bet and excessive page viewing/refreshing are over, perhaps we could shift discussion back towards the original direction of the thread.
(1) The first point was to express surprise that bookies had listed Gig with the same odds for the WSOP as name pros. Mystery was solved when it became apparent that Lorinda had singlehandedly created the market, and just one other additional bet on an illiquid British betting exchange demolished the odds down to the same level as the pros. (2) The thread next headed in the direction of, what are the correct odds on top players in the WSOP, and how do you estimate that? I've seen a couple guesstimates elsewhere, but with all of the quality analysis on this forum, I'm curious what the posters here think. What is the analysis and reasoning behind how to set the correct odds on: (a) a top player winning the WSOP ME (b) a top player making the final table (c) a player from "the field" (anyone other than the top 500 or so names) winning the ME
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#53
06-25-2005, 12:10 AM
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Re: Do bookies respect Gigabet?
I have an "in" as far as the size of the field. The tournament is set to cap at 6600. They are being very hush hush about how many are in at the moment. Even employess of the RIO do not know for sure.
But the exact words from the tournament director to my friend last week was this. "We are no where near where we thought we would be" So not sure how many that is, but my guess is 4.5k or so.
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#55
06-25-2005, 05:12 AM
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Re: Do bookies respect Gigabet?
lorinda, how did you get 199, I've had my 190 bet on betfair for over a week with no takers.
I got 200 by asking for 10 at 1000 and 10 at 750 as soon as the name was listed. Someone offered a tasty looking 200 to fill the gap, so I took it all. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Edit: To be entirely accurate, I took 25 immediately and then went and earned myself 25 more on some random sporting event or other so I could take the other 25 and not miss it should he happen to be outdrawn before the final. Lori
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#56
06-26-2005, 06:06 AM
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Re: Do bookies respect Gigabet?
Lori, I did a quick look around, and the most players I found listed on a site is 275 players to bet on. The average line is around 350:1, so taking them all gives you a line of around +125. Better than even money, but only 275 players. By the way, Giga was 400:1 there.
The odds at that site are pretty bad, though, and I've seen other sites with odds twice as good. So if you were to shop around and get an average line of +550, that would result in a combined bet on all 275 players that pays you 2:1. Pretty similar odds as you had posted. Dali, you could get a field bet there, but the odds were listed 1:5, so you'd have to lay 5:1 since you get the entire rest of the field. 6325 players vs 275, or if JJKillian is correct, 4225 vs 275. What do you (or anyone else) think of the line for this field bet?
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#57
06-26-2005, 02:02 PM
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Re: Do bookies respect Gigabet?
I think I'd want about 2-5 for the field bet or lay 1-4. I think the true odds are in the 3-1 range (To be in line with even money for the top 500 and allow for the fact that although we have most of the best 275, there are probably some celebs and morons on the list.)
Lori
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#58
06-26-2005, 02:19 PM
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Re: Do bookies respect Gigabet?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This post will be in flames by Sunday morning. [/ QUOTE ] care to make a wager? [/ QUOTE ] I will bet you one million dolla it will be in flames by sunday. provided I am allowed to post [/ QUOTE ] I'd take that bet and then pay mat sklansky $100,000 to lock this thread up and ban you.
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