Do bookies respect Gigabet?

[stupidsucker]

Thanks Lori.

is that based on a 5940 field then? (660x9)

I still think the bets are bad even if you know what you are doing. Just a lot better then I originaly thought. I am curious if there is money to be made by betting correctly on good players. It has to be better then horse racing odds.

I shouldnt post assumptions on things I really know nothing about. Just here to learn something new.

[Isura]

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What card room is that he's pimpin' on his shirt?

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I think that's Scott Fishman's gear.

[TheNoodleMan]

even if we assume that Lori is right, the varience is astronomical on this type of bet. Personally, my roll is better served elsewhere but I'll be rooting for him.

[lorinda]

6600 field. The bet I have is ten players, I've since seen that Pinnacle have got it at nine. (It has been shockingly hard to find out if the final will be nine or ten)

The field WILL be 6600 give or take a few.

Almost always these bets are sucker bets, however this year I think that the bookies have underestimated the amount of dead money.

Lori

[llabb]

Tech is right on with his points. Apparently some things still need clarification, though:

(1) On longshot bets, all books rape the public. These are very clearly complete sucker bets. That was not the point of the post. For more info on why these are sucker bets, see the WSOP Odds thread and other related threads in the Sports Betting forum.

(2) Shorting or betting against any individual player is clearly a +EV move. No book will let you do that. (Except Tradesports, which tries to be more of a market than a book, and those bets are limited.) Again, that was not the point of the post.

(3) Claiming that one famous pro is better than another, random flaming, and other such inferences drawn from these odds is likely unfounded. Books set odds based on the action they expect/desire to receive. Not the point of the post.

(4) The point of the post was simply to express surprise that Gigabet was included *at all* in the group of players to be wagered on. The book attempts to list the best players in the world and/or the ones that will attract the most wagers. For the book to choose only 131 such players and include Giga is an enormous sign of respect. It indicates that the book realizes he is either (i) one of the top players in the world, or (ii) many other people think so or will wager on him anyway. It is surprising for him to get this recognition after only 2 months of success in the B&M tournament world. For a relative unknown such as him to be listed at the same odds as Sklansky, Phillips, and other name pros means the book must think he is better than them.

[tech]

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I am curious if there is money to be made by betting correctly on good players.

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Yes, but the most +EV bets on this WSOP are not going to be straight bets on the participants. They are going to be scalps (taking advantage of different lines on the same player at different sites) and in-progress betting.

[stupidsucker]

Next question...
Is there available information on how the payout structure is?

I can't seem to find it anywhere(not even at worldseriesofpoker.com)

Last year the field was 2500ish so if they keep the same payout structure then the winner pulls in over 10million.

I heard a rumor that they were going to flatten it out some. I can't even remember where I heard that, so I can not claim any validity to the statement.

according to the schedule the final table will be 9
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July 14, Thursday Day 6, Start with 27 play down 9 @Binions Horseshoe

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I can't imagine it is set in stone, depending on how long it takes that night.

[Beavis68]

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How does betting on someone work?

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Giga is +11000 to make the final 9. That means you get odds of 110 to 1. So you bet $100 on Giga and if he makes it, you win $11000.

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So, an "average" player is 660 to 1 right ? Meaning +6600?

Man, these bookies are gonna clean up.

[lorinda]

1) I believe Pinnacle have made some errors in that list.

2) You can do it at betfair if you are English and most of the prices have been up there for several weeks now and nobody will touch them.

3) Correct

4) I believe they took their list from Betfair, most major bookmakers in the UK do that now, and for something as specific as this bet, I would not be surprised to see others follow suit.
Betfair added him solely because of my phone call and my money is 50% of the money traded on him.

If you look at the results so far this WSOP, it is clear that the name players are still going strong. Adding 4000 hopeless cases to the list will not make these people three times less likely to cash.

Lori

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
The point of the post was simply to express surprise that Gigabet was included *at all* in the group of players to be wagered on.

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Pinnacle uses outside consultants for their odds on events that are outside of mainstream betting (arena football, etc.). I assume they probably did the same thing for poker. If it is someone in tune with 2+2 tournament poker, that could explain Giga's inclusion.

Edit: Lori's phone call is also an extremely likely explanation. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]