OES+Flush Draw Short Handed

[lgas]

This is my first post (about a hand) here.

This hand occured in a $2/$5 NL game I played in at a local private card room. We were down to four players and in this game I like to limp frequently and see a lot of flops even when it's full handed but being short handed I play just about any two, and everyone involved in this hand knows that. Every now and then I raise preflop with nothing short handed, and every player in the hand knows that too. I think in general my table image is a decent if LAG-ish player, but I did get caught in one or two ill fated bluffs for relatively large amounts shortly before this hand. This is from memory so the preflop action might not be exact but it's about right.

I started the hand with about $545, small blind had about $365 and big blind had about $500.

I raise to $15 utg with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], button folds, small blind calls, TAG player in big blind calls. Pot=$45, flop is 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] sb checks, big blind bets $60 (he tends to make overbets like this to take down pots right away if he thinks he's definitely ahead).

I think I only had one move here and I think it's pretty clear cut, so I moved in (although I didn't move in instantly, I thought about it for quite a while first).

Both players in turn thought for a good while and eventually folded. As it turns out the small blind had two pair, the big blind had something like 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for bottom pair and the inside straight draw but I guess was trying to figure out the chances that I would make this play with nothing to back it up based on my earlier plays.

Rabbit hunting showed that I would've hit the 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to make my straight and win the hand. My thinking in moving in was that either or both players definitely had me beat at that point but that I had 15 outs twice which would definitely put me ahead (I put big blind on a high pair like AA or KK and I wasn't too worried about the small blind, thought maybe he had just paired the board), so was better than 60% to win the pot, the implied odds were almost 2-to-1 and of course if you factor in the chance of them folding I'm a lot better than 60%... of course what I really want is to get called in both places, and then hit that 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and bust both of them, but of course I was happy to take it down right there too. I also considered a) that it might look like a steal attempt (going all in for 5x the pot size) but like I said I don't mind since I'm figuring to win 60% of the time.... I also considered that if I expect to win 60% of the time maybe I should bet less than all-in to try to entice calls, but I didn't want to wind up in a situation where I wind up pot committed and have to get all my money in on the turn if a blank falls making my chances a lot worse.

So in effect I guess I'm saying that I think going all-in was about the best +EV play I could make, but I'm curious if anyone else sees a different line?

[boondockst]

this is abc....and rabbit hunting is bad....Did anyone tell you this was a bad line?

You take it down some of the time that you would end up missing and even though it's possible you'd get more out of it if you played it out and hit, it's possible that your draw hitting would kill your action anyway.

[lgas]

No one directly criticized my line, but there was a bit of discussion during the last player's decision to fold and then even more after the cards were exposed on the end that lead me to feel that neither player felt that moving in was as appropriate as I did and the one player at least has vastly more experience than I do, so that was what left me wondering.

[djoyce003]

you are a favorite over pretty much any hand they have on the flop so you want to get as much money in the pot as possible. Depending on stack sizes, a reraise of a lesser amount on the flop might have been ok as well to see what his reaction was. You shouldn't be upset if you end up all in on the flop tho, if your push on the flop was a massive overbet, then it was likely not the best way to approach it.

[swolfe]

no need to push like that since you have position on everyone. i'd make a standard, ~pot sized raise...say to $150. nothing except a set is going to call your push, but a normal raise might get a call from two pair or the pair plus gutshot, hoping to stack AA.

actually, i'm thinking that based on the stacks and the overbet, this may be the one time i would ever consider minraising. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

anyway, pushing isn't bad, but i don't think it's optimal.

[lgas]

So if I make the raise to $150 and everyone folds, that's fine, if someone re-raises then I go all-in, so that's fine... but what do I do if I get called in one or both places and then the turn bricks.... now there's between $345 and $500 in the pot and I've got $350 in front of me but now I only have about a 30% chance of winning the pot....

[Finite_Risk]

Be careful about thinking that you were 60% to win the pot...You were 60% to hit your hand...you can hit your hand and still lose (guy with 2 pr fills up)

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
So if I make the raise to $150 and everyone folds, that's fine, if someone re-raises then I go all-in, so that's fine... but what do I do if I get called in one or both places and then the turn bricks.... now there's between $345 and $500 in the pot and I've got $350 in front of me but now I only have about a 30% chance of winning the pot....

[/ QUOTE ]

they're likely going to check to you on the turn, and you'll check behind and take a free river. if you hit your hand, great, if not and they check to you, you may still want to push to get them to fold.

obviously, this is only a move that you make in position.