Question for Jeff W.

[stir]

.."In this case, you have >50% equity and you should raise and cap every street post flop until he 3-bets the river(unless he will call your river bet with nothing)."

In a post a few days ago you made this comment on an sthief09's Q high hand. Pardon my ignorance, but why does he have >50% equity? And if he does have >50% equity, why does that mean he should raise and cap flop and turn?

TIA

[Jeff W]

Post in question.

Here are the pokerstove simulations I performed:

Board: Ad Kd Ks
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 64.1847 % [ 00.60 00.04 ] { QdTh }
Hand 2: 35.8153 % [ 00.32 00.04 ] { random }

Board: Ad Kd Ks 9s
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 56.8368 % [ 00.53 00.04 ] { QdTh }
Hand 2: 43.1632 % [ 00.40 00.04 ] { random }

Board: Ad Kd Ks 9s 8c
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 50.1515 % [ 00.50 00.00 ] { QdTh }
Hand 2: 49.8485 % [ 00.49 00.00 ] { random }

It is important to note that I didn't suggest that sthief09 should cap every street. In the hand he played, his opponent was not a true maniac--defined as a player who bets and raises at every opportunity.

If he was against such a player(they are rare), then his opponent has a random hand and his equity would be >50% on every street. Therefore, he would have an equity edge and the most profitable play is to cap every street(except river, where he should raise and call a 3-bet, because he has to be ahead 50% of the time when his opponent calls).

[Elecman]

[ QUOTE ]

If he was against such a player(they are rare), then his opponent has a random hand and his equity would be >50% on every street. Therefore, he would have an equity edge and the most profitable play is to cap every street(except river, where he should raise and call a 3-bet, because he has to be ahead 50% of the time when his opponent calls).

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying he might fold the river a portion of the time large enough to make it a call?
Even against a true maniac capping every street i don't think i'd raise with QT on the river because the likelihood that he jumped out of total maniac mode for one hand is probably higher than .5% - but i do assume your post was highly theoretical - in which case, cap away