Willing to go broke?

[Boris]

Sorry but you can't tell gauge a person's intelligence by their appearance unless they have down's syndrome or something. And even if you could you wouldn't be able to map their intelligence level to how they play.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry but you can't tell gauge a person's intelligence by their appearance unless they have down's syndrome or something. And even if you could you wouldn't be able to map their intelligence level to how they play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everything you say is absolutely true.

Now let's see if we can properly differentiate between knowing and assessing.

Jeez, guys.

Lacking anything else, and requiring a read on basic skill/accumen/poker intelligence, OF COURSE you need to make at least some sort of assessment based upon any number of factors, each of which has at least something to do with appearance.

What--you don't size up the table before the first hand?

[Michael C.]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who pushes a set of jacks its an Idiot, anyone who pushes a set of fours is an idiot, anyone who pushes two pairs is an idiot, anyone who pushes is an idiot, going all-in for ur last 9950 on a pot of 300 doesnt seem right to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally agree, and that's a big reason why barring any other information I definitely call. The guy is an idiot, but even an idiot knows better than to go all in with the first or second nuts. But if he's an idiot who's just come from playing online, he might bet an overpair like that trying to protect his hand. Of course it's a moronic play, but I've seen similar plays like that in even a 215 SNG where a bad player will rish his 1000 chips on a 10-15 blind pot. But even morons can compute "three of a kind- I'm going to slow play..."

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
To answer.... yes this did come from Super System 2. Doyle's response of saying he'd fold the majority of the time really surprised me. So I decided to post it here w/o saying who it came from to hear everyone's responses.

I'll never be world class I guess cause I'm callin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doyle is Doyle and he can do very well in the tournament without risking all of his chips here by calling.

I on the other hand, am not nearly as good as Doyle is. I call.

[feelixthegreek]

True. Why would a bigger set want to shut everyone out?

[jackdaniels]

I was watching the Caro tells DVD and there are some interesting points about reading players - before any hands are dealt - that could be beneficial to the observant player. Some of the points he discusses are how one buys chips, how one stacks their chips etc... and how those same people are likely to play (gambler/conservative etc...) I would recommend seeing it, very interesting stuff.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
I was watching the Caro tells DVD and there are some interesting points about reading players - before any hands are dealt - that could be beneficial to the observant player. Some of the points he discusses are how one buys chips, how one stacks their chips etc... and how those same people are likely to play (gambler/conservative etc...) I would recommend seeing it, very interesting stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are TELLS. The poster was referring to profiling, which I still think is fine in the absence of any other information.

[Kaz The Original]

There were the exact cards used in supersystem. The flop was J42 and it was 6 ways. He says you only have to be scared of 444. I call this.

[Paul Phillips]

[ QUOTE ]
Granted this player has horribly misplayed his hand no matter what he has, but this reminds me of something Paul Phillips once said on here about facing a massive all-in overbet, and how his experience has taught him it usually means the guy has the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

At least, often enough to make me usually fold the first time they do it. But as usual with poker, the differences between the situation I was talking about (I raise to 150 with KK, guy jams for 10000) and this one may seem immaterial but they're not.

If I call with KK I'm hoping to be a 4.5-1 favorite in the best realistic case, and I could easily only be 7-3 even if I'm right that he doesn't have aces. And as someone else pointed out about that case, there is a real risk they're playing "the system" in which case they DO have aces.

Exercise to the reader to show that the situation with a set of deuces is vastly better, almost no matter what assumptions you make about the other player. If you add a single possible hand beyond JJ and 44 then you should call. I think here, the chances that they're expecting not to be called are dramatically higher than that they're betting a set.

Also relevant is whether you're close to closing the action. Six people limped, so the sickest outcome here is to call with all the limpers behind you and then see the gigantic smile break out on the face of the button as he overcalls with an overset. It may seem like a small risk but it comes with severe consequences.

I'd be real, real slow to fold this. I'd at least stare the guy down until they put the clock on me. I'd have much more trouble living with this fold than I would folding KK preflop or a flopped second-nut flush to a huge overbet, which are much likelier scenarios in real life.

[Shaun]

Yes. Absolutely. J24 is not a scary board. Unless I know the player very well, I'm calling with trip 2s here.