SB at a loose table

joeski19 · #1 12-12-2005, 12:42 AM

Table is around 42% VPIP. MP1 and MP2 are 78 VPIP and 52 VPIP

Villian is 15% VPIP 3%PFR 4% AGR after 115 hands

Ultimate Bet 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero ??

Is this just a simple bet fold?

benkath1 · #2 12-12-2005, 12:47 AM

I think it is more of a call down. You hate dealing with a checking BB when paired rags flop. It's a small pot, but your hand is improving.

Eeegah · #3 12-12-2005, 12:48 AM

Where's the third player on the turn [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Anyway, he's equally likkely to have a Q or a 3 at this point, and given that he could have Q3* I don't think you can bet for value. Call down U/I.

* No, I'm not scared that he has specifically Q3; I mean we lose if he has any 3 and win/split if he has any Q except Q3. Thus there's a slightly less than half chance that we're ahead, but damned if I'm not going to showdown. This is assuming he's not stupid enough to raise a flush draw and blow away the field. Finally, this footnote is three times longer than the actual post. Burma shave.

** oh wait, I guess he won't have AQ/KQ/QQ. I suppose that means you're more likely to be ahead than not, but I want to call down anyway because I'm a weak tightie [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

NobodysFreak · #4 12-12-2005, 12:49 AM

I'm not ready to give villian credit for a 3. I think you might have to 3-bet this flop unless you're positive villian has a three in which case you should have dumped it on the flop.

Given the way you played it, check-raise the turn.

Sorry, for some reason I thought you had QJ. Bet/call seems good since our 6 isn't a very nice kicker. I'd still check-raise the turn though.

#5 12-12-2005, 12:56 AM

gruncheroo

it's funny, you don't have a read on BB, but everyone else?

Anyhow, I don't see standard villain's raising trips on the flop. They generally wait until the turn. That said, we could have a weaker Q on the flop, so a call and re-eval on the turn is OK. I think this turn proably improved our hand, we should bet, and call if raised and check/call the river. Another option is to checkraise (Screwball!!), and if we got 3-bet, we may have to check/fold the river (which sucks). We want a showdown, so I go for turn bet/call and river check/call in the face of more action.

edit: speling. stoopit keyboard

joeski19 · #6 12-12-2005, 01:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
gruncheroo

it's funny, you don't have a read on BB, but everyone else?

Anyhow, I don't see standard villain's raising trips on the flop. They generally wait until the turn. That said, we could have a weaker Q on the flop, so a call and re-eval on the turn is OK. I think this turn proably improved our hand, we should bet, and call if raised and check/call the river. Another option is to checkraise (Screwball!!), and if we got 3-bet, we may have to check/fold the river (which sucks). We want a showdown, so I go for turn bet/call and river check/call in the face of more action.

edit: speling. stoopit keyboard

[/ QUOTE ]

BB = Villian is 15% VPIP 3%PFR 4% AGR after 115 hands

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Eeegah · #7 12-12-2005, 01:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
4% AGR

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a percentage.

#8 12-12-2005, 01:10 AM

Oh huh! Yeah like the 4 is big aggro, which is quite aggro (4 bets/raises for every call). I think this doesn't change the Q vs 3 possibility. I guess he could have AQ,KK,QQ with such low pfr standards.

NobodysFreak · #9 12-12-2005, 01:13 AM

I think even this guy is raising KK and QQ out of the BB.

#10 12-12-2005, 01:24 AM

Bet/call, check/call.

IMO. Any line that allows a free card is not good.

Although the flush draw is unlikely, given villian's play, you are 50/50 with any of his other holdings. You have 90% equity if he holds a Q, he has 90% if he holds a 3. Both are equally likely (probably slightly favouring a Q).

But if he has Ax or Kx [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] he has 11 outs and giving a free card would kill a kitten.

If there was no flush draw, this would be a fine example of WA/WB.