$55: Mystified. Do donks still do this in the 55's?

[MegaBet]

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But you really haven't attempted to engage in any debate about my main point, which was avoiding expensive coinflips early in tournaments.

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Your perception that you should always avoid coinflips early on is wrong. Even expensive ones. It all depends on the price you are getting to flip the coin. In this case we are being offered great odds because of the dead money in the pot, making a call +EV. I don't know the exact ICM number because I haven't done the calculations, but I don't see how it could be close enough to make folding correct.

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Perfect description. Maybe I wasn't clear enough in my previous posts, but this is precisiely what I was getting at.

[wiggs73]

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But you really haven't attempted to engage in any debate about my main point, which was avoiding expensive coinflips early in tournaments.

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Your perception that you should always avoid coinflips early on is wrong. Even expensive ones. It all depends on the price you are getting to flip the coin. In this case we are being offered great odds because of the dead money in the pot, making a call +EV. I don't know the exact ICM number because I haven't done the calculations, but I don't see how it could be close enough to make folding correct.

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Thank you.

I'm not sure I'd call 1.26:1 great, but as the pot odds get larger, so does the favorableness (is that word?) of a call. I guess that point is intuitive, but it's probably still worth mentioning.

Here is an example I thought of...
Let's say that I'm a 40% ITM player and I never take either side of an early coinflip. Now let's say that in the first level of every SNG I play, I raise with AK and get re-raised all-in by another player, who shows me 55 and has me covered. Should I call?

The pot odds will usually point to yes. However, I'm out of the tournament 50% of the time here. That means that of the SNGs I stay in, I'll need to finish ITM 80% of the time to preserve my 40% ITM figure. Can I do this simply by doubling my starting stack early? I think it might actually be close, but I think 80% is a bit too high to obtain. So all-in-all, I think I preserve a better win rate by avoiding early coinflips, even when the odds say I should call.

I'm definitely not a SNG pro by any means, so if anyone thinks that the win rate (win rate = ITM rate I'm assuming) would be > 80% by winning an early coinflip, then say so. It may very well be. Or I'd be interested if others think that the ROI difference would compensate for the ITM fall. But my thinking is that gambling for your stack early isn't a great idea because a +EV situation so early in a tournament doesn't translate directly to +money. In a cash game, it does, which is why I called taking any +EV situation "cash game mentality" earlier in the thread.

[wiggs73]

Just to clarify, I never said that a call wasn't +EV, at least in terms of tournament chips. I do understand that point. My question is whether we should take every +EV situation presented to us.

[MegaBet]

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Just to clarify, I never said that a call wasn't +EV, at least in terms of tournament chips. I do understand that point. My question is whether we should take every +EV situation presented to us.

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In an MTT most likely no, unless someone has been raising a lot of pots early in the game. In a 10-person SNG where the blinds rise every 10 hands, yes I do.

[wiggs73]

Fair enough. I'm not sure that you read an earlier edit in which I said:

And I'll edit to say that this idea might be more useful in MTT's where you have more time to accumulate chips than you do in a SNG. Which is why I like folding with a larger stack more. Because a larger stack bides you more time to build a stack without pre-flop pushing.

So yeah... guess we're kinda seeing eye-to-eye on this now.

[llabb]

Thanks to everyone who replied. This is exactly the type of discussion I was hoping for, and I see that it also spawned a new thread regarding the general concept.

The general concept is, in fact, what I wanted to explore, even more than the specific hand, so it wasn't a hijack, the discussion was fine here, no biggie.

Between the two threads, here is a summary of the points I find most applicable:

1) It greatly matters what buy-in you are playing at. In the higher-limits, posters seem to think that most players play a decent/good bubble, so you need to take the small edges early. In the low-limit tourneys, perhaps your greater bubble edge is indeed worth folding here.

2) But as Mongo and Mega said, there's a whole lotta dead money in the example in the OP. So even in the low-limits, this type of thing should perhaps only be folded in level 1, possibly.

3) Stack sizes do matter. Some prefer to call this when <1000 chips, but to fold if you have already doubled up. I can see this idea having merit, since you have more FE when you are a larger stack, and can steal your way to more chips, with less risk. And then, when you finally get into your confrontation, you have a good chance out outstacking the guy and being able to come back even if you lose the showdown.

4) His range is the biggest factor. If you can put him only on a pair, it is a -EV call, as I discuss in a different, but still interesting, example that I posted in this thread. The range of Broadway cards that he will push here is key.


Have I missed anything important in this summary? If so, please let me know. Thanks for the good stuff, guys.


Epilogue: Apparently that pushing range, for a donk in level 2, who thinks the button is stealing, is liberal. I called, he had AJ, and I profitted, b!tch.