$55: Do you push with 1 limper at 300 blinds?

[llabb]

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the more opponents you have the tighter you ought to be

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you'll need to be looser 5-handed than you would be 4-handed

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Somewhere you're contradicting yourself, Perg. I'm trying to figure out what you want to get across, though.

10 Players: Avg Stack Equity: 10.0% Equity After Double Up: 18.4% Equity Change: 8.4% Equity % Change: 84%

6 Players: Avg Stack Equity: 16.7% Equity After Double Up: 28.7% Equity Change: 12.0% Equity % Change: 72%

5 Players: Avg Stack Equity: 20.0% Equity After Double Up: 33.0% Equity Change: 13.0% Equity % Change: 65%

4 Players: Avg Stack Equity: 25.0% Equity After Double Up: 38.3% Equity Change: 13.3% Equity % Change: 53%

Yes, as there are fewer players, your equity increase does not change much. It is essentially the same with 5 players or 4 players, although it is obviously a much smaller % change with 4 players due to ICM.

But I think you are drawing the wrong conclusion from this. I do not think that the answer is to be tighter 4-handed than 5-handed, but that your tightness on your pushes is primarily based on the blind levels, their corresponding % of your stack, and the # of players to push through.

10-handed, 5-handed, or 4-handed, you are still going to be very tight if the BB was 1 chip. If anything, you will be slightly looser with fewer players. Conversely, if the BB was enormous, your pushes would be much looser, especially with fewer players.

There are indeed times where you tighten up with fewer players, but that is because the blinds are a smaller % of your stack. If you were in a 10-handed situation with all equal stacks of 1000, and the blinds were 100-200, you would need to find youself a hand fairly quickly, as you could not go through more than 1 round of blinds. If a magic situation occured where that table suddenly became 4-handed, with equal stacks of 2500, blinds still 100-200, you would instantly tighten up, as you can now afford to wait longer, and the blinds are not worth as much.

But in an average game, the blinds rise proportionally to the average stack, until later in the game when the "bottleneck" occurs and the blinds are such a high proportion that people are tripping over themselves to go all-in. Once half of them are eliminated, the remaining stacks are so large that the blinds become more manageable.

Perhaps I'm going in a different direction than you intended Perg. Could you make your point a little clearer, or explain the discrepancy? Thanks.

[Skip Brutale]

You have less than 8 times the big blind. That isnt a healthy stack.

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High blinds make a difference. That is the whole point of the post. Heads up, is 4500 chips at level 10 a healthy stack?

[Insty]

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Where I seem to disagree with other posters is on what the limp means and how much FE I have. Those are the keys. If there is 0 FE, then pushing is equivalent to calling his push, which is -EV.


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Is it? You have to put him on a really tight range here for it to be -EV.
It's break even with him pushing only 11% of hands. (44+, A9o, A8s, KQs)

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At this level of blinds and stack sizes, I read a limp primarily as a pocket. Aces usually fold, raise, or push, depending on the kicker quality.


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Thats a mighty tight range you're putting him on. Are you psychic?
If you put him on 22+, folding to a push is -EV as you stated.

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I do not believe I have much FE against a pocket, at these blinds. ... If one were to think he did not have much FE, I think you could see why it might not be a push.

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You have more than 0 FE. What if he accidentally hits the wrong button.
The other thing is that no-one here would fold to the reraise, but we wouldnt limp either.
You need to remember that your opponents sometimes do the wrong thing.

The question is what percentage of the time does he need to fold to make this push correct?
It should be possible to calculate this.

I'm guessing that number is quite small.

But I dont think you can be that sure about his range.


Inst.

[Insty]

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The question is what percentage of the time does he need to fold to make this push correct?
It should be possible to calculate this.

I'm guessing that number is quite small.


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How wrong was I!

EV(fold) = our ev if we fold and villain wins the blinds = 0.219
EV = expected value of pushing
N = EV if we push and are Not called = 0.270
C = EV if we push and are Called* = 0.195
F = Percentage of the time villain folds to our push

* Villains range: 22+ (any pocket pair.) - our holding AQo

EV = N * F + C * ( 1 - F )

transposes to:

F = ( EV - C ) / ( N - C )

Plugging in the numbers:

Break even: (EV = EV(fold))

F = (0.219 - 0.195) / (0.270 - 0.195)
F = 0.32


So the villain needs to fold this 32% of the time.
I suspect he's never going to fold enough to make this worthwhile.

HOWEVER - can you be sure about his limping range?


Inst.

[llabb]

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At this level of blinds and stack sizes, I read a limp primarily as a pocket. Aces usually fold, raise, or push, depending on the kicker quality.

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Thats a mighty tight range you're putting him on. Are you psychic? If you put him on 22+, folding to a push is -EV as you stated.

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Yes. I am psychic. I've noticed $55'ers playing a slightly better bubble/near bubble. They do not limp at 300 blinds with crap. At 300 blinds, 4-to-5-handed, they usually understand they need to fold or raise their Aces, depending on their kickers. (Please note that I am not claiming that average $55'ers play a good bubble. Obviously, the villain should easily have pushed, but was a donk and limped his 88's. That is the type of donk mistake I see at the $55's.)

Anyway, I put him on a pair, any pair, but only a pair, which would be a -EV call and even a -EV push for me. And I was right. But I'm just like the rest of you arguing that AQ is an easy push, anyone who doesn't is a total moran. So I pushed and lost. Welcome to donkhood.

For those of you who have read this and think I'm a moran, please post some hands you have seen at the $55's, 300+ blinds, where a donk with a similar stack-size limps with KJ or some other crap. Or at this stack-size or less, where the donk limps and folds to a push.


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...buncha math...
So the villain needs to fold this 32% of the time. I suspect he's never going to fold enough to make this worthwhile.

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Thanks for the math, Insty. Haven't checked it all, but it looks like the right concept and a very interesting outcome. Even if some of you disagree with me about have near-0 FE, I doubt you can see the villain folding even 20% of the time here, let alone a solid third.

In light of this data, I would appreciate other people's new responses, especially since this situation was "so easy" for 91% of you.