RANDOM thoughts

[RedManPlus]

OK...
Since stirring up this controversy...
I've gone back to my freshman stats...
Taken the last 20 SNGs from 5 different Leaderboard players...
And done a "quick and dirty" SNG variance analysis...
** Specifically ONLY for guys doing about 20% SNG ROI **.
(I'm not interested in any other group).



So 100 games is worthless...
Even 500 is the bare threshold for evaluating long-term performance...
But 1000 is more realistic...
Giving you a ROI +/- 10% range.

For a true 20% ROI SNG player...
To lose money over 1000 tournies or roughly one month...
Is 4 SD away from the mean...
You know... asteroid territory.

On the other hand...
This is all very dire stuff for marginal players...
Like a zero to 5% ROI player.

The level of variance while quite manageable for a Leaderboard guy...
Pretty much what you would encounter in any business...
Is a level that cannot be sustained by a marginal player.

Basically...
Leaderboard guys no problem...
Marginal players...
You should get the hell out and do something else.

AliasMrJones is more or less right...
But only in terms of marginal players...
Which is about 90% of the posters at 2+2.

rm+

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