AKs against manical chip leader

[renodoc]

Actually a three way hand. $100 buy in MTT live.

BB has been crazy lucky and has knocked out two players with trash. Button is fairly tight, haven't seen him invovled much. Both of the players to my immediate right limp often.

Blinds are 25-50.
Stacks:
BB (maniac) lots and lots
MP (hero) 1600
Button (tight?) 750

Two limpers to me with AKs. I raise to 250. Button reraises all-in to 750. BB reraises (putting me all in if I call). Limpers fold.

I didn't do the math at the table. I put Button on AA-88, AK-AQ. I put BB on any two cards.

Call or fold? Juicy side pot....

[transmitt]

I'm calling. Even if the button turns over AA or KK, you still have a huge sideput v. the maniac. If you truly have him on any two this is an easy call. Ideally you are racing for the entire pot, but even if it is just for the side, you should be in good shape. Given the post though, I could see button turning JJ and the maniac waking up to AA or KK, hope not.

[schwza]

yeah, call because of the side pot.

[renodoc]

BB= maniac with huge stack who has knocked out two people with trash.
EP and MP are limpers
I have about 1600
Button fairly tight with about 750.

Blinds 25-50

Two limpers to me.

I raise with AKs to 250. (pot 425)

Button raises all-in to 750. (pot 1175)

BB re raises essentially all-in (main pot 1925, uncalled sidepot 850)

Limpers fold.

I can now fold or call. If I call, main pot will be 2425 and side pot 1700)

If I put Button on AA-88, and maybe AK-AQ, and maniac on any two cards, what is my EV of calling?

*********************************
Side pot:

I think the chances of maniac having AA or KK is extremely low.

So just on a purely random distribution:

AA or KK: 0.45% He is ahead 8-1 on AA and 7-3 on KK
Pair QQ or lower: about 5% He is ahead about 55-45 on these.

any other hand I am ahead of or tied with. I would put the rest of these hands at somewhere between 50-50 and 70-30 in my favor. I would say average 65%. (not sure if this is correct though) If he has a hand like A7 or Kx I actually have him dominated over 70%.

Unpaired hands 94% win 65% = 61% win side pot.
Pair: 5% win 45% = 2 % win
AA/KK 0.5% win 20% = 0.1% win

Total percentage of winning side pot is at least 63%.

Main pot:

I think this is straightforward to assume button has either a big pair or a small pair.

Big pair I lose most of the time.

Small pair I flip. 45%.

*************

So if I fold, I have 1350 in chips, below average but perfectly fine for this stage of the tourney.

If I call, I have about 40% or so of winning everything and having 4125 and can bully the table.
About another 25% of losing the main pot and winning the side pot and having 1700 (where I was)
And 35% chance of busting out.

[renodoc]

I'm gonna bump this once. In side discussions the consensus thinks fold is the best play.

[TheTimeIsUp]

Yes. Easy call. It is VERY unlikely the button has AA or KK, and you still have a decent chance vs KK. The button could easily have anything, and if you are facing 2 smaller pairs you are looking great.

You can officially call yourself weak/tight if you fold this.

[aucubbie]

you have to fold because if the tight player has has aa or ak or kk that takes 2 of your 6 outs so you have to fold.

[ismisus]

its more likely that the other guy has 6 outs. Since most likely AK has the maniac high carded