Using poker tracker, the significance of Went To SD %

[ZeeJustin]

I absolutely love and highly reccommend poker tracker, and I've said that many times before.

The 2 numbers I use the most while at the table are flops seen % (some people use VP$IP, just a matter of celsius vs. farenheit, use whatever you are used to), and PFR %. These numbers are obviously great for preflop play, but what about post flop play?

I'm guessing the Went to SD % statistic correlates directly with how loose people are after the flop. Should I be using this to determine if someone is a loose caller? Obviously observing is great and all, but I play 92 tables at once, and sometimes I won't have any read on players after 100 hands with them.

Is there a statistic that correlates well with aggressiveness after the flop?

What statistics besides % flops seen, and PFR% does everyone else use the most?

[MS Sunshine]

I like the idea of the number, but use it little unless it is way out of wack(<20% or >70%) because I don't have a real feel for what it means. My ring game number is about 30%. I raise about half the time I see the flop(18% and10%) and the idea that I give up 70% of the hands from the flop on gives me a gassy feeling. If someone was good at post-flop play which side of 30% would they be on? Would they be making better folds than me(20-29%) or would he be in there more pushing the winners that I'm folding(31-45%)?

MS Sunshine

[MicroBob]

"the idea that I give up 70% of the hands from the flop on gives me a gassy feeling. "

yeah....i thought that was you.

[NoChance]

I think it's the combination of Went to SD % and Win at SD %. If someone has a high Went to SD % (I consider this to be 38% or higher) but wins less than 50% of them, then to me that means they are chasing quite often.

[ZeeJustin]

I think the Win % at SD needs far more hands to be half as accurate.

[MicroBob]

my went to showdown is 29%
and my won $$ at SD is 57%

and i think i've had far too many chases where i was clearly beaten. but you can always justify these with the logic that party 2/4 players can be holding almost anything sometimes (although i think that is changing). and looking at the numbers i see that i'm probably not doing as bad as i thought.

i do like your cut-offs of 38% or so and 50% and will probably use these (or similar) guidelines to evaluate my opponents.

i've only had p-tracker for a couple of weeks and am still digging my way around it (almost 4k hands now) so this thread is rather helpfulto me.

[NoChance]

I also think ZeeJustin is right in that it requires alot more hands before that particular stat becomes useful.

But when looking at poker tracker and comaring some of the stats from the people I consider above average, most have a went to SD % in the range of 26-32% and a win % above 55%.

Most of the people I have labeled as calling stations are very loose, have a went to SD percent of 38% or higher and win less than 50%.

Of course there are always a few exceptions but in general the numbers above represent 90% of each group respectively.

Edit: These stats are for a full ring game, not shorthanded.

[zooey]

actually, i dont think so.

When you're meauring things that are in the coin flip arena, i.e. +-1 (saw the flop or not, went to showdown or not, etc) The standard deviation is on the order of ~1.

Therefore things converge as ~1/sqrt(hands), so you're pretty sure to be in the ball park after a few hundred hands.

Its when you're measuring rare events (how many times did someone have AA vs my KK on a AKx flop?) or non binary events (the amount you win is usually bigger than the amount you lose) that convergence takes longer.

Ive written a post or two on measurement error, and Bruce Z has written some better ones, if you're curious and want to search through the archives.

Best,

Zooey

[zooey]

Duh.

If you only go to showdown 20% of the time, it only "counts" as a measurement 1/5 of the time, so yeah, it takes 5 times as long to converge. 2000 hands should be enough to get a reasonable number, though.

Best,

Zooey

[Sheriff Fatman]

I don't think there's a single stat that gives you this info but I find a high check-raise frequency tends to be a reasonable indicator of a 'decent' post flop player provided the pre-flop stats look OK. Anyone looking to check raise when the situation is correct is likely to be reasonably aggressive post-flop in terms of bet and raise frequency.

I will caveat this with the fact this only applies to the players I've earmarked as decent. The other high check-raise percentages tend to belong to the fish with FPS/maniacal tendencies and tend to be accompanied with pre-flop raise stats of 25% and higher and a VPIP over 50%.

Other than that, if you've got a decent sample on someone, you could always go to the details screen showing actions at each betting round (check, bet, raise, etc). Although this is not exactly readily available info it'll give you exactly what you need on a particular player.