Punish the Limpers? Party $109 hand.

[JJJ88]

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And the chance of something even remotely similar to this happening???

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3-1

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I have to disagree on the chance.
The odd is much smaller than 3-1.
Maybe 300 - 1

[A_PLUS]

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My gut tells me it is a push, just b/c most good draws we would flop give us a similar EV to the current push (and they dont flop that often)

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This is why it's a push. The odds of flopping a hand where you have as large an EV as this is awfully low. Basically to get this much EV you need to flop 2 pair, both a straight draw AND a flush draw, trips or maybe a pair and a flush draw. Odds of all those combined: Low.

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agreed, I thought you did a great job of explaining this earlier.

[A_PLUS]

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And the chance of something even remotely similar to this happening???

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3-1

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I have to disagree on the chance.
The odd is much smaller than 3-1.
Maybe 300 - 1

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At least 3-1, maybe better. 75h is lucky for me

[Martin Aigner]

I think that in the later stages of an online 100+9 tourney there are some players who make notes about players who do likely steals like this one. So if I see somebody making this push twice or 3 times in a row in equal situations I´m very likely to call him down with very weak hands. If he doesn´t do it too often, I´m very inclined to pass hands like AJ. Maybe I´m wrong, but I think that there are enough players (in the "higher" online buy in events) who make notes making a move 100% of the time simply wrong.

[locutus2002]

Hero checks because he can't justify a push.

Let's do some dirty math to see where we are at.
Hero bets 2K to win 1K. If he's called he's unlikely to be more than 33% in the hand (generous) so villains must collectively fold 1/2 the time to make this work.

In order for villains to fold 1/2 the time they must each fold ~85% of the hands they would limp with (on average). Because 85%^4=~50%. How much is 85% of the hands villain limps with?

If villain limps any broadway and any suited ace (~230 hands) he would have to fold around AQ or TT to toss out 85% of his limping hands. There is a squeeze factor, and the fact that latter limpers have a much wider range than earlier limpers, stack size, etc, but it still looks like an awful lot of hand for villains to lay down.

[Lloyd]

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I think that in the later stages of an online 100+9 tourney there are some players who make notes about players who do likely steals like this one. So if I see somebody making this push twice or 3 times in a row in equal situations I´m very likely to call him down with very weak hands. If he doesn´t do it too often, I´m very inclined to pass hands like AJ. Maybe I´m wrong, but I think that there are enough players (in the "higher" online buy in events) who make notes making a move 100% of the time simply wrong.

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On the larger tournaments, it's a very rare occassion I come up against somebody who I have notes on. And I take notes on everybody who does something unusually good or bad. But I completely agree with your point. I just don't run into players that often that it's a typical situation.