Thin Value Bet?

[Lash]

Villian is 31.99/23.6/1.6 (72hands) <--- old stats, and has been at table a few orbits… not getting out of line

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB folds.

River: (8.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ?</font>

What do you do here, and why?

[ArturiusX]

Not thin at all. I see ace high calling here often.

[sy_or_bust]

Bet and be called by A-high or 88 or worse. When an aggro villain only calls the turn w/ BB behind, he is more likely to hold a worse hand....and often willing to call a heads-up river UI.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

Nothing has really changed since the flop-turn (discounting the rare AQ, AJ of hearts); so whatever he found worthy to call your donkbets with on a drawless board, he will probably call with again. What that range includes, is not really answered by the stats you provided, but the VPIP of 31.99 is an indication that it can be wide enough to include A-high.

Anyways, betting the river, is probably better than checking; since a check will induce him to bet the best part of his hand range (i.e. 10-10), but probably not the worst (i.e. A-high); so to have the highest possible EV from the river a bet is good.

Bet/fold. If had position I would probably let this one check through. At first I thought that I liked a flop c/r better than a donk, but that's not correct at all. NH.

[irishpint]

button never has TT, JJ or QQ here?

He can, and will, but bet/fold is about a million times better than check/call. Check/fold is probably the second best option. Takes big brass (idiot) balls to bluff this river with a busted hand. Against a tighter PFRR it might even be the best option.

[mcvalenc]

Bet-fold. Don't be too worried of an overpair under kings.