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#1
10-13-2005, 04:30 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
1. calling james a poker novice if he has playing very high stakes limit games is just plain incorrect and misleading
2. i wonder if someone will make a thread if he goes on a 40K downswing or breaks even for a month. most people on this forum only see one side in the threads that are made. 
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#2
10-13-2005, 04:39 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
1. calling james a poker novice if he has playing very high stakes limit games is just plain incorrect and misleading 2. i wonder if someone will make a thread if he goes on a 40K downswing or breaks even for a month. most people on this forum only see one side in the threads that are made. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't say poker novice, I said NL novice, which is exactly how he presented himself in the interview he did. See the title? You can have all the limit experience you want but if you haven't played very much NL you are a NL novice in my book. as for #2, it's been presented as mathematical fact by people "in the know" on these boards that NL has less variance than limit. Thus running at 15BB/100 in NL over "many many hands" should mean that it is incredibly unlikely to have that kind of 40K loss in a month or some such, because that would be a freak occurence on the order of many standard deviations. But yes, point well taken that most people do only see one side of the coin in poker, hence why they think a guy who wins $1 million on TV is a millionaire when oftentimes this isn't close to the truth.
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#3
10-13-2005, 05:27 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 1. calling james a poker novice if he has playing very high stakes limit games is just plain incorrect and misleading 2. i wonder if someone will make a thread if he goes on a 40K downswing or breaks even for a month. most people on this forum only see one side in the threads that are made. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't say poker novice, I said NL novice, which is exactly how he presented himself in the interview he did. See the title? You can have all the limit experience you want but if you haven't played very much NL you are a NL novice in my book. as for #2, it's been presented as mathematical fact by people "in the know" on these boards that NL has less variance than limit. Thus running at 15BB/100 in NL over "many many hands" should mean that it is incredibly unlikely to have that kind of 40K loss in a month or some such, because that would be a freak occurence on the order of many standard deviations. But yes, point well taken that most people do only see one side of the coin in poker, hence why they think a guy who wins $1 million on TV is a millionaire when oftentimes this isn't close to the truth. [/ QUOTE ] 1. its still very misleading 2. youre missing the point.
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#4
10-13-2005, 05:55 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
just because james is a nl novice and you are also, doesnt mean you can expect to win the same amount as him. he plays 300/600, you play 10/20....
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#5
10-13-2005, 06:09 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
just because james is a nl novice and you are also, doesnt mean you can expect to win the same amount as him. he plays 300/600, you play 10/20.... [/ QUOTE ] Too true, too true. But looking at the success of others allows me to estimate what kind of success (magnitude and probability of success) I might have making the same transition. It's like a comp valuation in investment banking.
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#6
10-13-2005, 06:10 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] just because james is a nl novice and you are also, doesnt mean you can expect to win the same amount as him. he plays 300/600, you play 10/20.... [/ QUOTE ] Too true, too true. But looking at the success of others allows me to estimate what kind of success (magnitude and probability of success) I might have making the same transition. It's like a comp valuation in investment banking. [/ QUOTE ] i understand, but you are better off asking in ssnl, where people's positons are more likely to resemble yours.
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#7
10-13-2005, 06:18 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] just because james is a nl novice and you are also, doesnt mean you can expect to win the same amount as him. he plays 300/600, you play 10/20.... [/ QUOTE ] Too true, too true. But looking at the success of others allows me to estimate what kind of success (magnitude and probability of success) I might have making the same transition. It's like a comp valuation in investment banking. [/ QUOTE ] LOL, yea, and do you and buy a firm based on solely comps?? hell no! so why would you assume that you're experience will be well proxied by a comp analysis? Barron
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#9
10-13-2005, 06:25 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
i think the real post of the thread was Yeti's
james plays good poker. period. NL/limit whatever. i bet if i taught him what i know about lowball he'd pick it up in no time flat. clearly comparing NL he to lowball isn't fair b/c lowball is easier by a wide margin...just an example. combine that with a 1/100,000 or so run (maybe a bit shorter on the odds) and you have a 114k month in a game requiring a 50k br. also, i play with james a great deal as do quite a few of you who play 10/20NL (you also probably play a lot w/ me and some others) so you can see for yourself how he did it. get all in, win pot, repeat. sounds easy lol. i guess now im rambling but the bottom line is go ahead and try to repeat what he did and you'll live many lifetimes wondering why it wont happen for you. Barron
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