How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)

[Scuba Chuck]

Thought this was worth showing. I'm sure I'll get blasted for doing this with a small BIG stack, but I am an aggressive player:

Two things to learn from this.

First, I was pushing everytime if the little stack folded, with any two cards.

Second, the reason why you don't want to call this bet, even with AK.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t2870)
SB (t2200)
BB (t1880)
UTG (t1050)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Preflop: BB is dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Flop: (t4750) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG folds, Hero pushes, SB folds, BB calls

Turn: (t4750) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

River: (t4750) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

Final Pot: t4750

Scuba Chuck: "stupid call"
Scuba Chuck: "welcome to 4th place buddy"
Villain: "bs"
Villain: "you're all-in every hand"
Villain: "how's calling with ak stupid"
Scuba_Chuck: "because ur in 4th place"

There was a lot more railbirding following this, but I think you get the picture.

[ChrisV]

Actually, he's correct to call with that hand. The ICM wants 63.17% win to break even, AK's equity is 65.72.

Also, you want to be a little careful exploiting this principle because the Fundamental Theorem Of Poker doesn't apply to SNGs. Just because your opponent calls incorrectly doesn't mean it's good for you.

[Pepsquad]

I like the aggression. The trash talk was low-class.

[Scuba Chuck]

Okay, let's do the ICM calcs then. I've never done them for this before, so I'd like to see.

I am going to do them from Villains' point of view.

Fold = 23.5% of prize pool.

Push, win = 48.8% of the prize pool

Push, lose = 0.00% of prize pool

I'll give the benefit that the probability of winning with AK against any range of hands is 70%

Thus Pushing = (.7)(.488) + 0 = 34%

I guess you're right, pushing is the right thing to do, at least according to ICM.

[Scuba Chuck]

Actually, he's correct to call with that hand. The ICM wants 63.17% win to break even, AK's equity is 65.72.

Can you explain how you got these ICM numbers to me?

[ChrisV]

I was running the numbers for specifically those two hands, 62 and AK (of those suits).

The AK equity I got with Pokerstove. The ICM number required to break even you do by creating an equation where x is that number and solving for x.

Let a be ICM equity of folding (as a decimal)
Let b be ICM equity of pushing and winning
Let c be ICM equity of pushing and losing

a = b(x) + c(1-x)

Solve that for x. In this example c is zero, which simplifies things to a = b(x).

[GimmeDaWatch]

Handled with true class and dignity. You dont really see the beneficiary of the suckout taunting the loser too often,
its a real treat.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the aggression. The trash talk was low-class.

[/ QUOTE ]

well said

[shoeman]

I definately like the aggressive play on the bubble.

However, I'd have a hard time passing up on AK here if I were the BB. There are only a few hands I call with here and I think AK is one of them.

BTW, I played few 20s with you yesterday Scuba_Chuck. I believe you busted out of one when your AA was cracked.

[KenProspero]

So, on that PARTICULAR hand, you're saying that it was a bad bet for Chuck to play AA?