Flip the Cards Over

[SippinSoma]

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Why is it that uninformed players make this +EV call, and we don't? What are we seeing here that makes us fold?


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When there is a bet, a call, and a raise, all 3 players will have <= 2 outs very rarely.

No backdoor flush draw, five outs against a known TP? He's sandwiched between two guys with big hands on the flop, and he cold calls a raise, which could get reraised and capped before it comes back to him? Yes, this is terrible.

EDIT: Interesting results. Would have thought it was a mistake instead of a +EV play, assuming he could see all cards held.

ScottieK

[QTip]

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EDIT: Interesting results. Would have thought it was a mistake instead of a +EV play, assuming he could see all cards held.

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I guess that's what just bothers me. It's stupid, I guess.

Someone once talked about looking at "suckouts" from a the other's perspective. When I look at one like this, I see it wasn't a suckout, and he played his hand perfectly according to the ftop. Other times I see one, I realize that I underestimated implied odds.

At any rate, I think we all agree that his flop call is horrible in practicality. I guess just another facet of luck for a fish is that they stumble upon +EV calls.

a cold calling button will usually have (depending on his stats) aq/aj(usually suited)/at(suited,hopefully for him)/99/88/77(maybe)/kq/kjs.
so after rasing the flop i'd reduce him to aq/aj/88/99(creative).
PFRer should have approximatly 88+/ATs+/KTs+
since in reality we DON'T know the others' cards we can't take out the possibility of a reraise/cap and the possibility of drawing alomost dead (no outs vs 88s as running T's get us killed) and have 4-5 outs vs the button's other possible holdings.
ran Pstove with these hands and gace CO hands with 8's and 4's (no aces though as assumed he'd raise)and pairs 77-
(might be too narrow as he could be an idiot), and BB has 13.1% equity.
MP1 will reraise AT+ here ~50-60% of the time with the hand range i gave him and implied odds depend on CO and button calling (button would call).
pot odds are not there (4.5 outs), need to calculate implied but must leave here, will try tomorrow. intuition tells me BB is short on his implied odds for a call (will need to pay at least 4 sb, probably 5 so he needs 40 sb in the pot by the end).

[Entity]

I hate 2p2's software.

I had a long response ready to post about how he has about 4.7 outs and he doesn't have the best implieds here given the fact that QQ and 22 aren't exactly pot-committed, but what it comes down to is that he's getting about 6.25:1 when he needs 7.2:1 and he can make a peel if he's good enough to extract extra bets when he turns 2pr or trips and get away from his hand when he gets redrawn (board pairs 8's on river against 2pr, board pairs Ace on river against either).

So basically what it comes down to is this: with the cards known, a good player can make this a profitable call, and a bad player probably can't.

Rob

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Why is it that uninformed players make this +EV call, and we don't? What are we seeing here that makes us fold?

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What makes me laugh my ass off:

A 2+2er is much more likely to make the flop bet from MP1 with only 4% equity than they are to make the call from BB with 20% equity.

AHAHAHAHAAHAAHhhAAAHHAaH


Good post. It's got me thinking.

[Jake (The Snake)]

I'm getting different number than this.

I think 4.7 outs is a good estimate.

41 unknown cards, of which 4.7 are outs. Which leaves 36.3:4.7 or 7.72:1 odds.

Also, while he is getting 6.25:1 immediately, I don't think it's right to assume CO and MP are folding every time. CO especially looks like he is calling to try to spike a deuce. I would addd another 1.2 SB or so and say the actual odds are 7.45:1 (assuming we are never 3-bet like Qtip said).

Getting 7.45:1 and needing 7.72:1, we only need to make up .54 SB (we need to double the number since we are putting in two bets), which will be easy.

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So basically what it comes down to is this: with the cards known, a good player can make this a profitable call, and a bad player probably can't.

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According to your calcs, T4 needs to make up only 1BB to make it profitable. As long as he isn't calling on the turn when he misses, I think a terrible player can easily call profitably. Even if the other two fold, he'll usually be able to get 3BB out of Hero alone.

[Shillx]

Q,

This is the absolute best case spot for T4 when it isn't ahead, and that is why this post is somewhat of a mirage. There are 41 unseen cards that can come on 4th and 5 will help us. This give us a 12.2% chance to improve, or about 5.7 outs on a traditional scale.

If we connect on the turn, we will lose to a redraw 8/40 times when we make two split and 5/40 times when we make trips. So on average, the villians have 6.8 outs against us on 4th street. This ammounts to 17% of the time.

When you do 12.2%*83%*47 cards = 4.76 outs (using the traditional method of 47 unseen cards). So we would need to be getting about 8.9:1 to call here if this put us all-in. We are getting 7.25:1 to call (if everyone else comes along) so we need to make up 1.65 SB in implied odds to make this call +EV. This is a no brainer call.

Edit...

What if the dude with 22 actually had KT? Let's see how much of a difference this would make.

p (improve) = .0976
p (out redrawn) = .5*3/40 + .5*9/40 = .15

Implied odds needed = 3.81 SB

So even that small change makes a huge difference. Then figure it out for the times that you are dominated or are drawing dead to trips/quads and it gets much tougher.

[Entity]

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I'm getting different number than this.

I think 4.7 outs is a good estimate.

41 unknown cards, of which 4.7 are outs. Which leaves 36.3:4.7 or 7.72:1 odds.

Also, while he is getting 6.25:1 immediately, I don't think it's right to assume CO and MP are folding every time. CO especially looks like he is calling to try to spike a deuce. I would addd another 1.2 SB or so and say the actual odds are 7.45:1 (assuming we are never 3-bet like Qtip said).

Getting 7.45:1 and needing 7.72:1, we only need to make up .54 SB (we need to double the number since we are putting in two bets), which will be easy.

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So basically what it comes down to is this: with the cards known, a good player can make this a profitable call, and a bad player probably can't.

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According to your calcs, T4 needs to make up only 1BB to make it profitable. As long as he isn't calling on the turn when he misses, I think a terrible player can easily call profitably. Even if the other two fold, he'll usually be able to get 3BB out of Hero alone.

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Yeah, the numbers are a bit off in mine. I had the whole post done and did the rest from memory since I lost the damned pot. The main point I was trying to make is that as long as he suddenly plays the turn/river fine (checkraise turn with improvement, checkfold river if you get sucked out on), his call isn't all that bad. But that's a pretty unreasonable situation.

Rob

[Jake (The Snake)]

Numbers are a bit off in mine as well.

We should be getting about 7:1, not 7.45:1, which means we have to make up about 1.5 SB. Still easily done.