Flip the Cards Over

QTip · #1 12-23-2005, 02:55 PM

BostonZak and I were discussing a hand a poor player played.

We know that playing a hand well or poorly in game time and playing a hand well or poorly according to the fundamental theorom of poker are 2 different things. Imagine BB has a software that shows other players hands. Do you think his call is a mistake according to the ftop? If so, how much of a mistake (quantitatively)?

Button has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

CO has 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2

BB has T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

MP1 has Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

CO posts a blind of $2.
2 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, CO (poster) calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, CO calls, Hero raises, BB calls

W. Deranged · #2 12-23-2005, 03:10 PM

Betting about 6 to 1, he needs like 14% equity here. He has no more than 5 outs to improve, which would be 20% equity if they were all clean. The problem is that they are never always clean in a multiway pot like this, and it is entirely possible considering the pre-flop action that this will go to more bets. If it gets three-bet, he could be paying effectively 3 into a pot of like 15-17 or something like that, so his equity demands go up from like 14 to more like 16% or so.

I think on average he's go something like 12% equity here and needs like 15% on average to continue, so his mistake is something like .4-.5 sb since he's paying 2 SB here.

Obviously a lot of this depends on how you discount the two pair outs. But I think we need to discount them at least 30% or so (that'd be down to 14%) and 40% seems more likely to be right.

QTip · #3 12-23-2005, 03:14 PM

WD:

Are you considering implied odds?

Also, we'll say MP1 is not a moron and is not 3 betting here.

milesdyson · #4 12-23-2005, 03:27 PM

i believe i would call here if i were him and i had this info.

getting ~7:1 (we dont know that QQ/22 calls the raise), we have 5 squeaky clean outs and we can be pretty sure this is all we're going to have to pay to see the turn. we will hit 5/(52-11 known cards) times, which is 12.2% of the time, or 7.2:1.

with implied odds, this is a super easy call. especially because there will only be a 6 out redraw against us if we improve - the great part is that we have no reverse implied odds since we simply open fold whenever one of these lands:

3 aces
1 queen
2 twos

W. Deranged · #5 12-23-2005, 03:37 PM

Q,

I left out the implied odds part.

Implied odds here are pretty small actually because villain is going to hit and lose here with some frequency. He's vulnerable to redraws as well. I guess it is a slight positive effect, though. So I guess the decision is closer to neutral, maybe like .1-.2 SB bad.

milesdyson · #6 12-23-2005, 04:02 PM

i don't see how this is close at all. we only get outdrawn 6/40 times (15%). we are just about getting even money to call on the flop with our 5 outer and if we improve on the turn we gain at least 2 big bets 85% of the time (depending on how bad the guys with QQ/22 are).

W. Deranged · #7 12-23-2005, 04:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i don't see how this is close at all. we only get outdrawn 6/40 times (15%). we are just about getting even money to call on the flop with our 5 outer and if we improve on the turn we gain at least 2 big bets 85% of the time (depending on how bad the guys with QQ/22 are).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you are discounting your outs nearly heavily enough. We do NOT have 5 outs here. It's more like 3-4.

#8 12-23-2005, 04:53 PM

No backdoor flush draw, five outs against a known TP? He's sandwiched between two guys with big hands on the flop, and he cold calls a raise, which could get reraised and capped before it comes back to him? Yes, this is terrible.

EDIT: Interesting results. Would have thought it was a mistake instead of a +EV play, assuming he could see all cards held.

ScottieK

QTip · #9 12-23-2005, 05:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Interesting results. Would have thought it was a mistake instead of a +EV play, assuming he could see all cards held.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that's what just bothers me. It's stupid, I guess.

Someone once talked about looking at "suckouts" from a the other's perspective. When I look at one like this, I see it wasn't a suckout, and he played his hand perfectly according to the ftop. Other times I see one, I realize that I underestimated implied odds.

At any rate, I think we all agree that his flop call is horrible in practicality. I guess just another facet of luck for a fish is that they stumble upon +EV calls.

Shillx · #10 12-23-2005, 07:48 PM

Q,

This is the absolute best case spot for T4 when it isn't ahead, and that is why this post is somewhat of a mirage. There are 41 unseen cards that can come on 4th and 5 will help us. This give us a 12.2% chance to improve, or about 5.7 outs on a traditional scale.

If we connect on the turn, we will lose to a redraw 8/40 times when we make two split and 5/40 times when we make trips. So on average, the villians have 6.8 outs against us on 4th street. This ammounts to 17% of the time.

When you do 12.2%*83%*47 cards = 4.76 outs (using the traditional method of 47 unseen cards). So we would need to be getting about 8.9:1 to call here if this put us all-in. We are getting 7.25:1 to call (if everyone else comes along) so we need to make up 1.65 SB in implied odds to make this call +EV. This is a no brainer call.

Edit...

What if the dude with 22 actually had KT? Let's see how much of a difference this would make.

p (improve) = .0976
p (out redrawn) = .5*3/40 + .5*9/40 = .15

Implied odds needed = 3.81 SB

So even that small change makes a huge difference. Then figure it out for the times that you are dominated or are drawing dead to trips/quads and it gets much tougher.