Is this a fold?

[Pat Southern]

We're in the money in the 500k guaranteed, about 300 left when this hand came up. I've gone allin in 3 of the past 5 hands and not been called. This guy had played very tight the entire time he was at my table (like 30 hands), but when he played a hand he opened with a raise.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) converter

Button (t8430)
SB (t12555)
BB (t7115)
UTG (t9390)
UTG+1 (t2953)
MP1 (t7225)
MP2 (t15680)
MP3 (t16870)
Hero (t7517)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
MP1 raises allin 7225, folded to hero...

Now at the time I thought sweet I finally have a hand and somebody is pushing into me. In retrospect, after putting him on a range of hands I'm not so sure. I think this is a fair range to put a tight/somewhat weak player to push with 9 BBs:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,294,501,824 games 1.875 secs 690,400,972 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.6933 % 34.75% 07.94% { AQo }
Hand 2: 57.3067 % 49.36% 07.94% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }

P.S. yes I'm posting this hand because I lost, but I'm starting to think I overvalued having a big hand and ignored hand ranges. Can anybody justify a fold?

[ekky]

[ QUOTE ]
Can anybody justify a fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

you did a pretty good job of that yourself. Given your *read* of the player, I think you can fold this without giving too much thought to it.

[LethalRose]

Given that you yourself are short stacked and he is as well I call. Your hand range is quite generous. He might be pushing any 2 here. its 50/50 but the blinds are coming up and if you dont get a hand before they pass you you will have almost no FE when you do push. You're already in the money its time to gamble to get that stack for the FT. just my .02

[ekky]

I dont like thinking a guy can sit patiently for 30 min and then suddenly get the urge to push with a mediocre hand..

I must admit one first glance I thought the guy was UTG. Given that he is in MP, conditions change somewhat.. but it seems like he is patiently waiting for a big enough hand to committ all his chips with... I'm a little torn either way.

You can definitely fold here though, and there is no shame in doing so

[jeramy576]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like thinking a guy can sit patiently for 30 min and then suddenly get the urge to push with a mediocre hand..



I agree 100%