20/40 top set

[-Skeme-]

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yes

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Are these more likely than a real hand? How often do you bet down like this with air? Do you really expect him to bluff here? I push.

I am not in the push camp. I think by pushing you give this guy an opportunity to fold.

I like a bet of around $4.5K on the river. This will ensure a call if he does in fact have 2 pair or a set. Granted he would call your push if he had a set, but I would rather guarantee myself at least another $4.5K on this hand. I think a push makes him fold 1 pair and 2 pair hands.

Obviously if he missed his draw he is folding on the river to a large bet anyways.

I definitely don't like checking here, he has shown his willingness to call, so BET.

[unlucky513]

Checking and pushing don't seem right, so I'd make a blocking bet-sized bet on the river. It would have to be enough to get value out of if called, and at the same time enough to give villain the option to come over the top if he thinks his hand is good/hero is full of it.

Does that make sense? (it did in my head)

[scdavis0]

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I am not in the push camp. I think by pushing you give this guy an opportunity to fold.

I like a bet of around $4.5K on the river. This will ensure a call if he does in fact have 2 pair or a set. Granted he would call your push if he had a set, but I would rather guarantee myself at least another $4.5K on this hand. I think a push makes him fold 1 pair and 2 pair hands.

Obviously if he missed his draw he is folding on the river to a large bet anyways.

I definitely don't like checking here, he has shown his willingness to call, so BET.

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I don't think this logic is correct. Most players that are calling down in this manner don't have a mentality that they can call a 4.5k bet but when you bet 8k they'll just say aw shucks i guess you got my J7 beat.

So you think more players are willing to call and all in here than $4.5K?

This is something that you and I obviously disagree on.

[creedofhubris]

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I'd throw up if 2 pair checked it back to me. I bet it all here.

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Of course; but an equally emetic outcome occurs if you stack and the man mucks a two-pair he was intending to bet. The question here is how to weight the outcomes.

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I think that the chances of two pair checking behind are close to zero.

I also think the chances of two pair mucking to an allin are pretty low.

But I don't think it matters much, because there aren't really that many two pair possibilities out there. 3 combos of QJ. More of J7, I suppose, but what are the odds of someone calling a preflop raise with it, and then playing it passively?

[mgsimpleton]

this is what peolpe are missing here, i think... what can he have here besides top two (unlikely), AQ (also unlikely), a set (which is unlikely given action but he sticks it in anyway) or a big draw. i think if he bluffs enough a check is the best way to go but like everyone said, what are the chances he's going to try to bluff you here? he seems like a calling station so when he checks behind AQ you will want to kill yourself.

a lot of times in these spots i like a weak lead for value/induce a bluff but here the stacks don't permit it. if you're going to let him bluff it needs to be all in for whatever you have left, or else he gets way too scared about no fold equity, if he isnt already. so i think weak leading is the worst here. given the board though and the unlikeliness of him having a strong made hand, i am inclined to check... but this one comes down to a read of if he is a river bluffer or not.

oh, i just thought of something. another option is not just a weak lead, like a joke of a lead. like 700... he can't feel comfortable calling with a missed draw and you don't let him check behind (which many players with like KT will do and just pray you had T9) so he might be tempted into raising. but i feel like this ridic weak lead is so obvious that he'd have to be really really really dumb. so in sum, i like a check here.

[DcifrThs]

u think its possible given the villian's image of hero that villian would call flop w/ 77 and then is a bit scared to push after the 3k bet into a 1700 pot?

then on the river he plans to raise a blocking bet maybe or just call whatever.

if 77 could be in his range, id bet

Barron

[dark_avenger]

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I think that the chances of two pair checking behind are close to zero.


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Agree. I think most people can't resist the temptation to try and value bet two pair here when hero shows weakness on the river. After calling the huge bet on the turn, it is unlikely that villian has anything less then two pair, maybe tptk, but unlikely because hero has qq. Another thing to consider is wether villian would be playing anything that would make two pair? on this board maybe QJ but again that's unlikly, so villian probably has a set considering he called the pfr.

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I also think the chances of two pair mucking to an allin are pretty low.


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Disagree. I think two small pairs are easy to get rid of when big agression is shown in ep on all streets. Maybe not such an easy decision since hero has a laggy image, but not an easy call anyway.

All in all, I think its most likely villian has a set, in which case it doesn't really matter what you do, the money's going in. I really don't think he'd have anything less then two pair at all, in which case it would be better to check and let him bet, rather then go all in and risk him folding.

I've already responded but for some reason I feel like I need to say it again.

No checks here...bet!