Either I can't adjust my play or i'm cursed, you tell me (long)

Ok been reading a while first post though... I've been playing about 4 years, mostly 1/2 NL on the weekends. I have about 8 home games I rotate through and have recorded overall profit on every single one of them, except one. This game is sort of odd, they play 1/2 blinds, with a max buy in of $100, however they all play as though it's a 5/10, and there usually isn't a person there with less than 1k in their pocket. I have never seen a pot folded to the better when someone opens for $20 preflop, ever, and usually the hands shown down at the end are along the lines of 6 8 off and A 3 off, with a pair of sixes winning the $200+ pot. I've even seen 3 5 off call $80 preflop behind a raise and a reraise. My theory has been that I don't want to involve myself with anything but super premium hands because I know i'll get paid..I can honestly say i've never played any hands except AK, AK suited, AQ suited, limped pp's lower than QQ looking for sets, and basically gotten all in preflop with QQ KK AA. However, even for 40-60 preflop, i'm ending up with 2-4 callers every time, and over 10 sessions and around 73 hours of play, i'm down $1800 in this game. Fact of the matter is my hands are always always always getting cracked because so many players call down no matter what. I have never recorded a winning session here. Is it possible the game can't get beat even waiting for the premium hands if those hands are always against an average of three other random hands? Am I making a mistake playing super tight? I don't think my roll could handle the variance of playing any looser. Should I just not play here even though by all appearances it should be the most insanely profitable game on earth? I'm actually starting to get superstitious about the place. Help!

How do the stacks get so big in the first place [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]. Do you usually get up and then loosen your starting standards when you see huge pots going to garbage hands? If that's not the case, I don't know what to say. Maybe some of the vets have ideas. I personally couldnt take the swings. I'd rather go shoot craps.

[lapoker17]

Either your sample size is too small or we're not getting the full story. This is a dream game. I used to play in one that was similar, and these games are imminently beatable. I'm not really welcome in that game anymore.

One thing you neglect to mention is whether the other players play well post-flop. If they are aware at the table, then they know exactly what you told us - That you only play super-premium hands etc..and they use that against you. You may be blinded by your lack of perspective.

Post specific hands here - That is your solution.

[teddyFBI]

You don't have a proper understanding of variance, nor are you sufficiently bankrolled for that game if you're sweating an $1,800 loss.
If you've been reading here a while, you need to keep at it.

Read Homer's bankroll thread. Read Theory of Poker.

[Shaun]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I making a mistake playing super tight?.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I'm not sure what your bankroll is, but in a game like this, you need to be able to get in there and "gamble" with them. The key is, you "gamble" with just a little bit better hands that what you're opponents are likely to hold.

I'd approach it like this: your first 100$ buy-in you wait for something that is likely to be a favorite (or that just has more than its share of equity) in a big multi-way pot, and then you try and get as much action as you can. This doesn't have to mean AA (though obviously that'll do), but it doesn't mean 77 either. In fact, smaller pairs aren't going to be worth much in this game until you've built your stack to about 400 or more. So early on, you want hands like AJs, KQs, JTs, and obviously big pairs. If you can get heads up you might want to gamble with hands like 88 and 99, but if you are going to be facing multiple opponents you almost always need a set to win with these hands, and you just aren't going to get the implied odds to play for sets with only 100 bucks.

Try and rethink your approach to this game. If you have the bankroll, go into it looking to have fun and make sure everyone knows that's what you're doing. Gamble with these types of hands early and it is likely you'll double or triple up within your first 2 or 3 buy-ins. Once you start to get a bigger stack, your play will shift back towards playing for sets, though you should stil take gambles with hands like AK against short stacks. Your goal is to build a big stack so that you can be selective pre-flop and so that your smaller pairs will now have implied odds to flop big.

[captZEEbo1]

[ QUOTE ]
nor are you sufficiently bankrolled for that game if you're sweating an $1,800 loss.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is absolutely NOTHING wrong with sweating a 18 buyin loss. The OP didn't seem SUPER upset about losing the actual money, but rather, worried about why he can't beat this game full of chumps. It really sounds like he's having some bad luck, but I doubt he's playing optimally.

Very thankful for all the quick responses.

Firstly, my bankroll is about $5k which I thought was sufficient for 1/2. Again, this is the only game i've ever played so many sessions against the same 8 players and lost in, but they are infinitely more loose than anyone else I see. The stacks get so big because it's basically an all in fest for the first hour resulting in a few $500 stacks then the losers proceed to keep going all in with their $100 rebuys to try and catch up. There is a new chipleader every ten hands. Also while the table starts with about $800 in play, there is over $8,000 in the room.

"One thing you neglect to mention is whether the other players play well post-flop. If they are aware at the table, then they know exactly what you told us - That you only play super-premium hands etc..and they use that against you. You may be blinded by your lack of perspective."

Well you can be guaranteed to end up all in on 75% of your flops you see if you want a showdown, so the answer is that every one of them are ultra aggressive. They are very aware I am waiting for premium hands, yet pay no attention if the flop is AK3 and they have k 10 and i'm in the pot they will call anything I bet.. I just don't know what it is my stack has never gone higher than $250 or so at this table. If I hit top pair with an ace king or queen kicker I usually assume I have the best hand... and am usually wrong despite watching middle pair bottom pair and ace high win pot after pot. It is very confusing. Players who I have seen turn over nothing better than top pair mid kicker all night long always seem to suddenly turn up straights or boats on me. On the other hand, I was observing the table the other night and watching one player's hole cards with his consent. He had K 3 spades and called $20 preflop. Flop was three spades, queen high. UTG bet $40, my guy raises to $80, button goes all in for $120 more, and my guy folds without even _thinking_ about it. Button showed the ace high flush. I couldn't believe this insanely loose aggressive call with anything player just laid down that hand, so I really don't know what to think. I usually go in there with around $1200. I could give specific hands but they are all things like KK vs. 5 3 and j 7 for $40 preflop and 5 3 makes straight on the flop without the ace, AJ vs A3 for $20 preflop and flop is j 3 3, etc. And very little play involved because I raise so much preflop and usually have only the shitty $100 buy in in front of me. But always against completely impossible to put on hands.

"You don't have a proper understanding of variance, nor are you sufficiently bankrolled for that game if you're sweating an $1,800 loss.
If you've been reading here a while, you need to keep at it."

Well I suppose I will just try to ignore the insulting tone of this response and say that while I most certainly do have a proper understanding of variance, the purpose of this post is that I do not believe this is a variance issue. I think it would be silly to chalk this up to variance when there are factors such as the fact that this game is incredibly more loose than any other I play in, the players all bring significantly more money which not a one of them cares about, and it is the only game I have ever played in which I have lost each and every single last buy in I have ever put into it. In my view this reflects a lack of ability for me to alter my game properly to a profitable strategy in these circumstances... poker tracker has me as a SLAA (semi-loose aggressive aggressive and might I add reportedly the most profitable style according to the autorate rules I use) over 120,000 hands of .5/1 and 1/2 NL. However I don't feel comfortable playing this way in this game and have altered myself to Tight Aggressive, which doesn't appear to be working and I don't understand why. I keep buying back in because everything I see says I should have a 5k winning streak any second now with these crazy fools...I know my chances of winning any given pot with a bluff is probably only one in ten at best, so I just don't do it. I need a winning strategy against a table where you can't weed out hands with preflop raises, but will get no subsequent action if you limp in and then hit a flop because the pot is too small. I've been playing for 3 years on a $5k bankroll at these limits and this is the first time i've had a dip like this so I would question the possibility that my bankroll is too small, but i'll read that thread anyway.

[SpaceAce]

What are you doing with TT/JJ on undercard flops? How are you playing if you flop a flush draw and two overs? You say your stack never got over about $250 in this game, right? I can't help but think you're playing weak somewhere in all this and getting run over by the hyper-muppets. In a game like the one you describe, you should be getting ready to retire, not wondering where your $1,800 went. By the way, I think sweating 18 buy-ins is perfectly reasonable despite what a previous poster said. At the 18 buy-in mark, coming somewhere like 2+2 looking for advice is not a bad idea.

Of course, I've run so insanely bad the last ten months or so that my feelings on these games are starting to waver, too. Still, for now I am sticking to believing that the game you describe is a dream game. Try to keep faith in the math.

SpaceAce

[etizzle]

you may be getting cheated.