UB 15/30: K3o blind war

bdk3clash · #1 10-25-2005, 05:16 PM

BB is something like 30/15/2.3 over about 120 hands. Comments on each street appreciated.

Ultimate Bet 15/30 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: bdk3clash is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, bdk3clash raises, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
bdk3clash bets, BB raises, bdk3clash 3-bets, BB caps, bdk3clash calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
bdk3clash checks, BB bets, bdk3clash calls.

River: (8 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
bdk3clash checks, BB bets, bdk3clash calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Surfbullet · #2 10-25-2005, 05:38 PM

I really want to fold the river, but my folding has gotten a bit out of hand, lately. edit: whoops, we chop with any other K with kicker T and down. Can't fold the river.

Surf

Catt · #3 10-25-2005, 05:48 PM

I think this is good. I'd be praying for a paint on the river in the hopes that it misses Villain and we chop.

mperich · #4 10-25-2005, 05:52 PM

No other way to play this hand

-Mike

exist · #5 10-25-2005, 05:55 PM

no one wants to just call the flop raise?

#6 10-25-2005, 06:10 PM

This is why I hate playing 4-handed tables. On a 6-handed table, I would fold preflop.

On the flop, I would probably just call the raise rather than 3-bet.

Not a huge fan of check-calling the turn, but I dont see any real choice. Your hand is too good to fold to a raise, but boy you hate getting raised. Just hope that villain isn't drawing to clubs.

On the river, again, no choice but to call, but I think you're at best chopping this pot. Still, I cant find it in me to fold.

One factor that strongly influences the correct play, Brad, is what metagame considerations villain may be considering. If you've been one of those annoying SBs raising every pot HU and OOP, there's a lot more reason for taking an aggressive line on the flop with TPNK.

#7 10-25-2005, 06:43 PM

Given the your title "blind war", in this analysis I'm assuming that you both have been playing back at each other on the flop.

BB could have:
A2 likely - 8 combinations
K2s Likely - 3 comb
any two gapped/low clubs likely - 17 comb
any two connected/high clubs less likely - 6 comb
K4 less likely - 9 comb
44 less likely =2 comb
You're behind aprox 40 likely combinations

K6-T less likely - 60 comb
K5 less likely- 9 comb
You're tied to arpox 70 less likely combinations. lets say they are 40 likely combinations.

J8-Q unlikely - 60 comb
33,55,66 less likely - 15 comb
You're ahead of 75 unlikely combinations. Lets say they are 40 likely combinations.

Therefore we are ahead 1/3 of the time, drawing dead 1/3 of the time, and can outdraw to a tie 1/3 of the time. Looks like a call down. Could have even been a raise given a none club paint on the river.

Trent.

stoxtrader · #8 10-26-2005, 10:27 AM

I did not read the replies, but I don't like the flop 3 bet. At that point, I think you are simply letting worse hands off easy, and charing yourself extra vs. better hands on that kind of board.

Let him put a bet in on the turn and river, If he does it after you 3 bet that's no fun, but after you just call, you will win the max when ahead from a number of 3 barrel bluffs.

Paxosmotic · #9 10-26-2005, 10:37 AM

I'm with you on the no flop 3-bet, I'm definitely not feeling great about this hand. In a 4 handed situation he could have a lot of 2s, and I realize it's playing scared, but by not going to war we're letting him keep on firing with a worse hand and not getting raped by a better hand.

#10 10-28-2005, 03:02 AM

So what did he have?