TT set - monotone flop

theghost · #1 05-13-2005, 10:12 AM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP3 calls, BB folds, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (11.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 14.75 BB

deception5 · #2 05-13-2005, 10:15 AM

Looks about right.

itsmesteve · #3 05-13-2005, 10:16 AM

i'd cap the flop without reads here, villain could easily be pushing 2 pair or top pair. i'd want to raise the turn too if given the opportunity.

OldYoda · #4 05-13-2005, 10:19 AM

Don't dislike any part of it. I probably raise the turn here, simply because I think villain is more likely holding TPTK than the flush.

jrz1972 · #5 05-13-2005, 10:19 AM

I would have capped the flop and/or raised the turn.

River is fine.

MrWookie47 · #6 05-13-2005, 10:20 AM

You could consider capping the flop for value. You're 33% to hit your boat (MP3 called 2 cold once, he'll call again), so capping is EV neutral even if you're behind. Since there's a decent chance you currently have the best hand, it's a good move. If MP1 is still firing at you on the turn, then you can call down.

Grail · #7 05-13-2005, 10:24 AM

No reads I at least concider capping the flop. If he still bets into me I just call down. TP, 2p, or even just A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is possible if he's very aggro.

OP line is pretty good, don't see any major mistakes.

Always hate having to slow down when I flop a set. If the board pairs it's back to the races though.

-G

Agthorr · #8 05-13-2005, 10:28 AM

I'd cap the flop. Even if you're already up against a flush, you're getting 2-to-1 odds which breaks even assuming MP3 still calls (which to me seems likely). By capping you may get MP1 to check on the turn (fearing you have higher clubs), and allowing you to check behind if you don't see the card you want. Plus, it's a value bet if MP3 is betting a draw (which he'd be right to do if, for example, he's holding A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and a non-club).

theghost · #9 05-13-2005, 10:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're 33% to hit your boat

[/ QUOTE ]
Help me out on this math. 7 outs on the flop, 10 on the turn; that gives me 33% equity (edit: 33% equity on the flop betting round)? How exact is that?

itsmesteve · #10 05-13-2005, 10:52 AM

7/47 + 10/46=.149+.217=.366 this is the probability of hitting a boat, although its probably less since it is likely there are a queen or two out, given the action.

I think your equity is actually higher, since there's no guarantee that your trips are no good yet. I think it was Grunch who made a post a few weeks ago saying you could approximate your equity by multiplying your outs by 4 on the flop, but i could be wrong.