$109... This isn't exactly what I had in mind...

[Kristian]

I was also wondering about the fear of the flush draw, and the likelihood that at least one of the 2 opponents are holding 2 hearts.
It is one thing to calculate the probability of at least one of the 5 players who saw the flop holding 2 hearts, this is not easy (for me), so I asked in the probability forum (no answers yet).
But it is quite another to evaluate this probability after 2 players have called a bet. You need to know the habits of your typical 109$ SnG opponents to adjust the objective probability of a flush draw.

My gut feeling is that we shouldn't be too afraid of the flush and bet the turn, but I am not used to the 109's yet. Could be that we only rarely would see calls from other hands than flush draws in this situation, and in that case we should be check/folding the rest of the way.

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I was also wondering about the fear of the flush draw, and the likelihood that at least one of the 2 opponents are holding 2 hearts.
It is one thing to calculate the probability of at least one of the 5 players who saw the flop holding 2 hearts, this is not easy (for me), so I asked in the probability forum (no answers yet).
But it is quite another to evaluate this probability after 2 players have called a bet. You need to know the habits of your typical 109$ SnG opponents to adjust the objective probability of a flush draw.

My gut feeling is that we shouldn't be too afraid of the flush and bet the turn, but I am not used to the 109's yet. Could be that we only rarely would see calls from other hands than flush draws in this situation, and in that case we should be check/folding the rest of the way.

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I agree, the fact that 2 callers on the flop makes it more likely that the flush is out there but I'm not sure that it's all that much more. I mean with 6 to the flop you will get called in at least one place right? 2 callers wouldn't be out of the question even if there was no flush draw out there either.

Do let us know if you get a response from the probability forum, I'm sure curious. I've been thinking about this one a fair bit and waffled myself before posting but I still like pushing though I can't say I'm sure. If the mathematical chances of a flush draw being present are higher than I suspect then that would change things. Wish I was better at math.

[Kristian]

The prob forum came through and crunched some numbers. Assuming the hands of the other 5 players are randomly distributed, there is a 21,9% chance we are up against at least one flush draw on the flop.

Does this change anyones opinion, or is it pretty much as expected?

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The prob forum came through and crunched some numbers. Assuming the hands of the other 5 players are randomly distributed, there is a 21,9% chance we are up against at least one flush draw on the flop.

Does this change anyones opinion, or is it pretty much as expected?

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They're really far from randomly distributed and the heart on the turn changes this greatly.

You're almost always way better off playing against the hands your opponents are representing than random hands.