Three hands for comments..

[B Dids]

"Okay, sorry, don't mean to be an @ss or anything, but you've said that you only play below group 4 with suited aces, the occasional well placed suited connectors, pocket pairs, and KJ? So you're excluding suited one-off-connectors (Q9s, T8s, 97s), off-suited connectors like QJ, JT, and then hands like AT, KT, QT? Even on the button in a loose game?"

First off, good questions, I'm still learning too, so I don't profess to have all the answers. Here's my thoughts. KJ and AT are more likely to make TPGK than other hands. There's a huge value to sets and suited aces when they make their hands. Maybe I should be playing some of those lower hands in late position, but I don't feel like my game is suffering for want of playing those hands.

When I first started, I tired to play with my hard card open at all times. Eventually I stopped using it, and just starting looking at each had in each situation. And often times, I'm still making incorrect plays. Still, with the help of the books, and this forum, I'm doing very well. Best you can do is play your game, and then get feedback so that you can get better.

"So I bet strictly for information here? Didn't I accomplish the same thing by checking?"

If you're raised, you can be reasonably sure that somebody is holding a hand that beats you. I agree that this is a really hard hand to play. While part of me knows that raisign is probably the best play- I just call it down.

[Shalara]

Hand One: I fold KTo preflop, unless I'm in the small blind. That being said, I think you played it the best you could. Good job all streets. I would expect to see CO turn over tens with a wobbly kicker from the way he played. I was quite surprised by the results.

Hand Two: I don't like the call pre-flop myself. A suited connector is okay, but dropping down to a one-gap doesn't look as good. My reasoning is a suited connector can make a flush or straight, and with a one-gap, you're really only shooting for a flush. Maybe that's just me though.

I'd call the flop, like you did. I'd raise the turn though. Maybe there's a higher one. Maybe not--the guy could have flopped top pair, two pair, or a straight even. Lots of hands that might still bet into that flop. If re-raised, I'd just call though. River play dependant on turn play.

Hand Three: I would either raise or fold here. Probably fold, but I did raise a hand kind of like this today. If you're going to play it, you need to put pressure on people drawing for another diamond. And hope everyone folds [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] If you're going to fold, good. That's the better choice with that many people in, imo. If the kicker was good, though, say J or higher, I'd be raising like crazy.

[sfer]

I'd rather limp with A6s than T8s or KTo at a loose/passive table.

3 flush cards on the board does not necessarily mean you're up against a made flush. A good quality of that flop is that you can pretty safely fold if someone raises into a field.

[Ed Miller]

Hand 1 you played fine. That happens sometimes. Generally, if you have a pretty good hand, and they never raise you, keep on betting. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Hand 2 you misplayed. You missed three key concepts:

1. You have a big draw on the flop. You have a flush draw and a gutshot straight draw. That gives you twelve outs twice (granted your gutshot uses only the ten from your hand, so it isn't as strong as if it used both cards). Twelve out draws come in 45% of the time by the river. You have three opponents (so you put in only 25% of the money), and you are going to make your hand 45% of the time.

Your first flop call is ok because the bet comes from your right (so a raise would eliminate players), but after three people call, instead of calling to close the action you should 3-bet. You make money on every additional flop bet.

2. You should raise the turn. Your flush is small (but not tiny... after all, there are only three cards bigger than your ten) which makes it vulnerable to a fourth diamond on the river. You should raise to put pressure on someone with the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (obviously anyone with the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] will call no matter what you do). But your raise could be the difference between winning and losing if someone has the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] behind you. Also, it gets more money in the pot when you almost certainly have the best hand.

3. You ABSOLUTELY should raise the river. Not raising the river is just plain playing scared. It's damn hard to have a bigger flush than yours. Think of the ENTIRE RANGE of hands he could have. A bigger flush than yours is NO MORE than 10% of that range... he could have one pair, two pair, trips, a straight, a smaller flush, etc. A raise is profitable (assuming your opponent will always call your raise) if your hand is better than 2/3 of the hands he could have. That is, you make one bet when you have a better hand, and you lose two bets when he has the better hand (because he will reraise and you will call). So you lay 2-to-1 that your hand is better. But when your hand is best 90% of the time, you ABSOLUTELY to should lay 2-to-1 that you have the best hand.

You make the same mistake in the next hand... you irrationally fear hands that are underdogs to be out.

Hand 3. Well, your fold isn't terrible on the "don't fold so damn much" scale, but I would have called. The real problem with this hand is that 35% of the time by the river, a fourth diamond will appear and you will be toast for sure. So that means that you only have a chance to win 65% of the time... and you certainly aren't a guaranteed winner.

Someone could have a made flush, but even with six opponents or so, it is an underdog to be out. I don't know exactly, but I'd guess based on experience that someone will have a flush maybe 25-35% of the time. With an option to call for one bet almost closing the action, I'd toss in the bet and see what the turn is. If it's a diamond, you turbo muck. If it isn't, watch the action to help you decide whether your hand is still best.

BTW, all your preflop plays were fine.

[kem]

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I don't know what simulations you are using. I will normally bet the flop because I feel I have the best hand. I am also confident that I will be able to fold the hand in some situations and continue betting in other situations. If you are not comfortable taking the lead in the hand, check-folding is without a doubt a +EV play.

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I was using Poki's Poker Academy (from the U of Alberta poker group) for the simulations. You can fix cards to certain values, and allow the others to be randomly drawn from the remaining deck. Then you can enumerate through the possibility, or simulate X number if there are too many to enumerate. It will then tell you the % of hands where you have the best hand by the river. So it's assuming everyone stays in through the river, but even so, the %'s I was getting out made me a huge huge underdog.

[kem]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand Two: I don't like the call pre-flop myself. A suited connector is okay, but dropping down to a one-gap doesn't look as good. My reasoning is a suited connector can make a flush or straight, and with a one-gap, you're really only shooting for a flush. Maybe that's just me though.

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Can't suited one-off-connectors make a straight 3 ways, and connectors 4? Not a huge difference, and I did actually draw both a gut shot and a flush draw.. I would have probably mucked in a more aggressive table, but this one was pretty passive..

[Ed Miller]

Can't suited one-off-connectors make a straight 3 ways, and connectors 4? Not a huge difference, and I did actually draw both a gut shot and a flush draw.. I would have probably mucked in a more aggressive table, but this one was pretty passive..

Actually, it is a big difference. After all, how big do you think your edge IS with a marginal hand like T8s? Cutting your straight chances by 25% is not helpful. Also, it's not just how many ways you can make a straight, but also what sort of draws you can flop.

With a no-gapper (e.g., T9), you can flop an open-ended draw three ways (QJ, J8, 87), and a gutshot six ways (KQ, KJ, Q8, J7, 86, 76).

With a one-gapper (e.g., T8), you can flop an open-ended draw two ways (J9, 97), and a gutshot five ways (QJ, Q9, J7, 96, 76).

So not only does T9 make a straight by the river more often, but it also flops a stronger draw more often.

But, T8s is right about where the edge of profitable hands is where you limped with it. I'd definitely play T9s, and I wouldn't play J8s. I also wouldn't play 86s. Either way, don't sweat it. The call is not terrible... if it is unprofitable, it's only unprofitable by a few cents.

Focus on your post-flop play, not your preflop play. As long as you play reasonably tightly, the real money is won and lost after the flop. That goes for EVERYONE in this thread and on this board. Preflop play is all everyone seems to want to talk about. The funny thing is, when I first read your thread, I knew that the big debate would be about playing KTo and T8s. It's funny because those are the LEAST IMPORTANT decisions from the whole set of hands. Stop worrying about trivial stuff, guys.

[kem]

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Hand 2 you misplayed. You missed three key concepts:
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Thanks, I completely agree, I was playing way too scared. I should have been raising the turn and river.. I definitely wasn't thinking there.

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You make the same mistake in the next hand... you irrationally fear hands that are underdogs to be out.

Hand 3. Well, your fold isn't terrible on the "don't fold so damn much" scale, but I would have called. The real problem with this hand is that 35% of the time by the river, a fourth diamond will appear and you will be toast for sure. So that means that you only have a chance to win 65% of the time... and you certainly aren't a guaranteed winner.

Someone could have a made flush, but even with six opponents or so, it is an underdog to be out. I don't know exactly, but I'd guess based on experience that someone will have a flush maybe 25-35% of the time. With an option to call for one bet almost closing the action, I'd toss in the bet and see what the turn is. If it's a diamond, you turbo muck. If it isn't, watch the action to help you decide whether your hand is still best.

[/ QUOTE ]

So there's a 45% chance that by the river someone with a single diamond has made the flush, and you estimate a 25-35% chance that someone already has a flush. I tie another A6, beat A5, A4, and A2, but lose to all other aces (A3 is two pair). So if I'm facing another Ax, I'm probably behind 2/3 of the time.. Doesn't all of that add up to make me a huge underdog?

Assume I bet the flop, get callers and no raiser, a blank comes on the turn. I bet again, this time I'm raised, do you fold here? Or do you check and fold to a bettor? If I'm very carefully watching action on the turn when a blank falls, then I probably am thinking I'm behind, which is what I thought on the flop (and why I folded).

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BTW, all your preflop plays were fine.

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Thanks, I'm glad someone thinks so [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I was getting killed here for limping in with KTo on the button.. you'd think i was playing ace-rag UTG or something..

[Ed Miller]

So there's a 45% chance that by the river someone with a single diamond has made the flush, and you estimate a 25-35% chance that someone already has a flush. I tie another A6, beat A5, A4, and A2, but lose to all other aces (A3 is two pair). So if I'm facing another Ax, I'm probably behind 2/3 of the time.. Doesn't all of that add up to make me a huge underdog?

First of all, it's more like a 35% chance than 45% that a fourth diamond comes. Second, yup, you are an underdog. Fortunately, the pot lays you like 11-to-1 or something. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I'm not telling you to call down no matter what. I'm telling you to make one small flop call to see another card and gauge the turn action. Third, there you are again assuming that the worst hands are out against you. You seem convinced that someone else has an ace. Why? In fact, no one else DID have an ace, correct? Someone flopped a set, but no one had an ace. If you knew someone had a bigger ace, you'd fold. BUT YOU DON'T KNOW THAT, AND YOU CANNOT PROFITABLY ASSUME IT EITHER.

Assume I bet the flop, get callers and no raiser, a blank comes on the turn. I bet again, this time I'm raised, do you fold here? Or do you check and fold to a bettor? If I'm very carefully watching action on the turn when a blank falls, then I probably am thinking I'm behind, which is what I thought on the flop (and why I folded).

Who said anything about betting? I like your check, but when it is called back to you and you can call almost closing the action, I'd do so. A six could slide off, or the turn action could lead you to believe that you have the best hand.

[kem]

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, it's more like a 35% chance than 45% that a fourth diamond comes. Second, yup, you are an underdog. Fortunately, the pot lays you like 11-to-1 or something. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I'm not telling you to call down no matter what. I'm telling you to make one small flop call to see another card and gauge the turn action. Third, there you are again assuming that the worst hands are out against you. You seem convinced that someone else has an ace. Why? In fact, no one else DID have an ace, correct? Someone flopped a set, but no one had an ace. If you knew someone had a bigger ace, you'd fold. BUT YOU DON'T KNOW THAT, AND YOU CANNOT PROFITABLY ASSUME IT EITHER.

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Yep, 35%, it would help me calculate odds properly if I could subtract.. True, no one called the river with an ace, but it might have been out there and folded like I did. I wasn't necessarily assuming someone had a higher ace, but I was factoring it into my assessment of the situation. If the flop had been A93 rainbow, I would have bet it out to see where I stood, thinking there was a good chance I was ahead. The monotone board added enough to my doubts that I checked to see who would bet/call.. based on the people who seemed to like it, I thought I was too behind to call.

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Who said anything about betting? I like your check, but when it is called back to you and you can call almost closing the action, I'd do so. A six could slide off, or the turn action could lead you to believe that you have the best hand.

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Sorry, you didn't say to bet. I was thinking of the other replies to this thread which said to bet it out. A six sliding off (not the 6 of diamonds though) would be nice, but still possibly facing a made flush.. Maybe I'm playing really scared though..