Three hands for comments..

[kem]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, it is a big difference. After all, how big do you think your edge IS with a marginal hand like T8s? Cutting your straight chances by 25% is not helpful. Also, it's not just how many ways you can make a straight, but also what sort of draws you can flop.

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Couldn't you make the counter argument that a straight made with T8s will get more action than a straight with connectors? If I'm holding T8, my opponent has AQ, flop comes QJ9, wouldn't I see more action than if I'm holding T9 and the flop comes QJ8?

[ QUOTE ]
So not only does T9 make a straight by the river more often, but it also flops a stronger draw more often.

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The two are not independent, no? Connectors make straights in more way, and therefore have more draws.. This might be offset slightly by the fact that your opponents fear a board with a straight made from connectors more than a board with a straight made by one-off-connectors. Or am I totally off-base here?

[ QUOTE ]
Focus on your post-flop play, not your preflop play. As long as you play reasonably tightly, the real money is won and lost after the flop. That goes for EVERYONE in this thread and on this board. Preflop play is all everyone seems to want to talk about. The funny thing is, when I first read your thread, I knew that the big debate would be about playing KTo and T8s. It's funny because those are the LEAST IMPORTANT decisions from the whole set of hands. Stop worrying about trivial stuff, guys.

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This is interesting, because I would have thought the opposite. Let me tell you my logic real quick. I'm new to this board (and poker), but it seems like a lot of 2+2'ers boast +EV.. everyone seems to get +1-2BB/100 at least, yet you get very different advice from people on how to play the same hand. So everyone is playing differently, yet so many people are winning.

Think of a variation on a hold 'em game, in which there is only 1 round of betting, and it's after the river. So dealer deals everyone 2 cards, face down, then the flop, turn, river, then everyone bets. Take a +EV player from 2+2, stick him in this game against his normal opponents. Does his EV go up, or down? Forget rake here, assume a zero sum game. I say it goes down. Everyone instantly knows their hand, there are no draws, etc, much easier to calculate odds, see where you stand, etc, etc. Now back it up, have 2 rounds, where does EV go? Now have 3, then 4. Where does the 2+2'er get the most EV? I (perhaps wrongly) think it's pre-flop. Seems like at party, around 45% of people see the flop. Everyone plays ace-rag from anywhere. Contrast this to the ~20% VP$IP% of 2+2'ers and the selection of hands they play. Seems like this is where most of the value comes from.. that's my initial assessment at least, but I reserve the right to be completely wrong.

[Ed Miller]

Just to be clear, this call is close to the border, IMO. Your situation isn't good... you have a made hand that is difficult to improve, and you KNOW that EVEN IF you have the best hand, a bunch of people can easily draw out.

The only reason I suggest you call is:

1. There is significant money in the pot.
2. You almost close the action. If you had a reasonable risk of it being raised behind you, I'd suggest you fold. It's only because you are almost sure to see the turn card and action for one small bet that I suggest a call. This is a "toss the money in and hope things go your way" call. But I think things will go your way often enough for it to show a modest profit.

You also have the right idea when you say that the monotone board changed your strategy. That is totally correct. In fact, you got the important concept out of this hand... when the board flops monotone, and you do not have one of the suit, you should often play top pair cautiously on the flop. Versus a rainbow board, the chance you are behind has increased, and the chance you will be drawn out on has skyrocketed.

[Ed Miller]

Couldn't you make the counter argument that a straight made with T8s will get more action than a straight with connectors? If I'm holding T8, my opponent has AQ, flop comes QJ9, wouldn't I see more action than if I'm holding T9 and the flop comes QJ8?

The opposite is true. If you have AQ, you have significantly more to fear from a QJ9 board than a QJ8 board. Not only can two hands have made straights on the QJ9 board (KT and T8), but anyone with a T has an open-ended draw, and anyone with a K or 8 has a gutshot. On the QJ8 board, only T9 is a made straight, and people with T's or 9's only have gutshots.

The two are not independent, no? Connectors make straights in more way, and therefore have more draws.

Of course they aren't independent, but my point was to show that one-gaps make 25% fewer straights, but 33% fewer open-ended draws. I didn't draw enough attention to that b/c I included the gutshots. Open-ended draws have more than double the value of gutshots (all other things being equal) because the action will almost never force you to fold an open-eded draw, where it will often force you to fold a gutshot.

There is no question that the most important first step for a poker player to make is to tighten up his starting requirements. You can gain an edge in small games simply by playing tightly.

My point is that ONCE YOU ALREADY PLAY TIGHTLY, these marginal cases mean very little. As long as you play otherwise reasonably, it doesn't much matter whether you limp or fold KTo on the button or T8s in MP. It matters a lot if you call raises with K4o, but the marginal cases are arguing over pennies.

The mistakes you made playing your draw in hand 2 are very significant. They cost you lots of money... far more than limping on the button with KTo will ever cost you. The fact that most of the people go straight for the marginal preflop plays tells me that they do not fully understand exactly where the money comes from.

[kem]

[ QUOTE ]
The opposite is true. If you have AQ, you have significantly more to fear from a QJ9 board than a QJ8 board. Not only can two hands have made straights on the QJ9 board (KT and T8), but anyone with a T has an open-ended draw, and anyone with a K or 8 has a gutshot. On the QJ8 board, only T9 is a made straight, and people with T's or 9's only have gutshots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I picked a bad example.. How about Q98 and you're holding JT? Since connectors are valued higher than one-off-connectors, it seems logical that people would play them more. Therefore you would fear a straight more when the board allows a straight made with connectors than a straight made with one-off cards. Aren't these safe assumptions?

[ QUOTE ]
The mistakes you made playing your draw in hand 2 are very significant. They cost you lots of money... far more than limping on the button with KTo will ever cost you. The fact that most of the people go straight for the marginal preflop plays tells me that they do not fully understand exactly where the money comes from.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree here.. I should have gotten another 2-3BB out of my opponent when I made that flush.. Definitely key mistakes.

[adanthar]

The only thing I have to add to that fantastic post:

Look at the CO's play in Hand 3. He had the best hand on the flop and turn and had a greater than 50% chance of winning before the river even with the horribly passive set out. How many small bets did he cost himself by failing to bet the best hand? If MP1 stays that passive, only about 6-8 by my count- which is 2 less than what you cost yourself on your own flush by not 3 betting the flop and raising the turn. (MP1 is the real winner here, though, because I tried to figure it out and lost count after 20 something.)

PS: Q98 is a special case because everybody at Party plays JTo from every position and if I get raised on that board I start thinking about it. In any case, however, if you flop 33% less draws with a one gapper, you have to get 33% more action to make up for it, which is likely to be impossible no matter what the board looks like.

[sfer]

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I should have gotten another 2-3BB out of my opponent when I made that flush.. Definitely key mistakes.

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And 1.5 BB on the flop when you should have 3-bet your draw.