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#1
12-26-2005, 05:02 PM
 FourNickel Junior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 11
Arbs

Can someone explain how to find an arb and calculate ev
#2
12-27-2005, 11:48 AM
 NajdorfDefense Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: manhattan Posts: 149
Re: Arbs

You sell a Eagles to win SB at 1-1 odds.
You buy an Eagles to win SB at 3-1 odds.
You put \$100 of action on each.
Max loss = zero, Max win = \$200. EV % chance PHL wins times \$200. So if 10% your EV is \$20.

simple.

Naj
#3
12-27-2005, 01:28 PM
 NoSoup4U Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 2
Re: Arbs

In Najdorf's example, most of us would put \$200 on the 1-1 bet and \$100 on the 3-1 bet. You win \$100 either way then and you no longer care who wins.

In the real world, a more typical example would be this bet I placed last weekend:

\$3,000 on the Cardinals -2.5 +114 to win \$3,420
\$3,363 on the Eagles +2.5 -110 to win \$3,057

If the Cardinals won, I won \$57 more than I lost on the Eagles. If the Eagles won, I won \$57 more than I lost on the Cardinals. Either way, I win and am one step closer to clearing my bonus and getting paid almost 1% on my money for the trouble. If you can find 1% per week, you earn 52% on the year. If you earn 1% per day, you earn 365% on the year.
#4
12-28-2005, 12:07 PM
 NajdorfDefense Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: manhattan Posts: 149
Re: Arbs

Yeah, sorry bout that, my example was a little rushed as I tried to make it more simple. Clearly you would want to book the \$100 pure profit regardless.

Damn cutting back on caffeine is killin me.

Naj
#5
12-28-2005, 04:16 PM
 NoSoup4U Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 2
Re: Arbs

No worries. There are few topics that I am smart enough to contribute on here, but how to arb money risk-free and clear bonuses appeals to my limit ring game grinder's mind. When I first got talked into trying it, I really thought it seemed too good to be true or that it would take hours and hours to find a good play. It turns out to be a lot easier than I thought it would be.
#6
12-28-2005, 04:46 PM
 DougOzzzz Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 132
Re: Arbs

[ QUOTE ]
In Najdorf's example, most of us would put \$200 on the 1-1 bet and \$100 on the 3-1 bet. You win \$100 either way then and you no longer care who wins.

In the real world, a more typical example would be this bet I placed last weekend:

\$3,000 on the Cardinals -2.5 +114 to win \$3,420
\$3,363 on the Eagles +2.5 -110 to win \$3,057

If the Cardinals won, I won \$57 more than I lost on the Eagles. If the Eagles won, I won \$57 more than I lost on the Cardinals. Either way, I win and am one step closer to clearing my bonus and getting paid almost 1% on my money for the trouble. If you can find 1% per week, you earn 52% on the year. If you earn 1% per day, you earn 365% on the year.

[/ QUOTE ]

1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.
#7
12-28-2005, 06:09 PM
 NoSoup4U Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 2
Re: Arbs

[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!
#8
12-28-2005, 06:18 PM
 DougOzzzz Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 132
Re: Arbs

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you understand that this wasn't a typo. It might look like 365%, but it actually more than 10x that much.
#9
12-28-2005, 07:24 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: Arbs

How many books to you guys have accounts with in order to effectively scalp? I'm very intrigued by this, and having just gotten my bonus, I have some money to throw into a few more accounts at various books to make it happen.
#10
12-28-2005, 10:17 PM
 NoSoup4U Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 2
Re: Arbs

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you understand that this wasn't a typo. It might look like 365%, but it actually more than 10x that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh no. I understood my mistake immediately. I'm new at this and am stunned at the money that is available with relatively low risk.

Of course, I could never leverage my whole bankroll into 1% arbs every day because of the need to move money around, but it made me realize that my return is going be much larger than I first thought.

So far I'm primarily focused on clearing bonuses, but I think this could be worthwhile when I'm done just on arbs alone. It seems to me that either Pinny or Matchbook have at least one arb almost every time I check.

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