Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Sports Betting

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-26-2005, 05:02 PM
FourNickel FourNickel is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 11
Default Arbs

Can someone explain how to find an arb and calculate ev
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-27-2005, 11:48 AM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: manhattan
Posts: 149
Default Re: Arbs

You sell a Eagles to win SB at 1-1 odds.
You buy an Eagles to win SB at 3-1 odds.
You put $100 of action on each.
Max loss = zero, Max win = $200. EV % chance PHL wins times $200. So if 10% your EV is $20.

simple.

Naj
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-27-2005, 01:28 PM
NoSoup4U NoSoup4U is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 2
Default Re: Arbs

In Najdorf's example, most of us would put $200 on the 1-1 bet and $100 on the 3-1 bet. You win $100 either way then and you no longer care who wins.

In the real world, a more typical example would be this bet I placed last weekend:

$3,000 on the Cardinals -2.5 +114 to win $3,420
$3,363 on the Eagles +2.5 -110 to win $3,057

If the Cardinals won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Eagles. If the Eagles won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Cardinals. Either way, I win and am one step closer to clearing my bonus and getting paid almost 1% on my money for the trouble. If you can find 1% per week, you earn 52% on the year. If you earn 1% per day, you earn 365% on the year.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-28-2005, 12:07 PM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: manhattan
Posts: 149
Default Re: Arbs

Yeah, sorry bout that, my example was a little rushed as I tried to make it more simple. Clearly you would want to book the $100 pure profit regardless.

Damn cutting back on caffeine is killin me.

Naj
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-28-2005, 04:16 PM
NoSoup4U NoSoup4U is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 2
Default Re: Arbs

No worries. There are few topics that I am smart enough to contribute on here, but how to arb money risk-free and clear bonuses appeals to my limit ring game grinder's mind. When I first got talked into trying it, I really thought it seemed too good to be true or that it would take hours and hours to find a good play. It turns out to be a lot easier than I thought it would be.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-28-2005, 04:46 PM
DougOzzzz DougOzzzz is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 132
Default Re: Arbs

[ QUOTE ]
In Najdorf's example, most of us would put $200 on the 1-1 bet and $100 on the 3-1 bet. You win $100 either way then and you no longer care who wins.

In the real world, a more typical example would be this bet I placed last weekend:

$3,000 on the Cardinals -2.5 +114 to win $3,420
$3,363 on the Eagles +2.5 -110 to win $3,057

If the Cardinals won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Eagles. If the Eagles won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Cardinals. Either way, I win and am one step closer to clearing my bonus and getting paid almost 1% on my money for the trouble. If you can find 1% per week, you earn 52% on the year. If you earn 1% per day, you earn 365% on the year.

[/ QUOTE ]

1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12-28-2005, 06:09 PM
NoSoup4U NoSoup4U is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 2
Default Re: Arbs

[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12-28-2005, 06:18 PM
DougOzzzz DougOzzzz is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 132
Default Re: Arbs

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you understand that this wasn't a typo. It might look like 365%, but it actually more than 10x that much.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 12-28-2005, 07:24 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Arbs

How many books to you guys have accounts with in order to effectively scalp? I'm very intrigued by this, and having just gotten my bonus, I have some money to throw into a few more accounts at various books to make it happen.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 12-28-2005, 10:17 PM
NoSoup4U NoSoup4U is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 2
Default Re: Arbs

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you understand that this wasn't a typo. It might look like 365%, but it actually more than 10x that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh no. I understood my mistake immediately. I'm new at this and am stunned at the money that is available with relatively low risk.

Of course, I could never leverage my whole bankroll into 1% arbs every day because of the need to move money around, but it made me realize that my return is going be much larger than I first thought.

So far I'm primarily focused on clearing bonuses, but I think this could be worthwhile when I'm done just on arbs alone. It seems to me that either Pinny or Matchbook have at least one arb almost every time I check.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:39 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.