thought on a river bet

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks,

[shemp]

This is a tough spot. You might try the other forum. I can't bet here, even though it appears I probably should. I think you are ahead, I just don't know how often you get called here by worse hands or whether a K folds (or how I have a K in his hand) -- and yet, people don't seem to fold... It's partly that a check-raise would annoy me. So I just exhale and turn my cards up.

[gh9801]

I'd check behind here. You are beating worse pocket pairs and that's it. With this kind of board I don't think a worse pocket pair pays you off enough to make this a profitable value bet. A king never folds here.

[TJD]

It might help to know something about the opponent.

However, absent that, let's have a go.

He "probably" has no 8 and no King since you did not get donked or CR on the turn. We do not know that is true of course since most opponents are not kind enough to show you their cards during the play of a hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

How's about an Ace? What would YOU have done if you had Ax on that river. Many people would bet here to prevent you getting a free SD knowing that you would bet if YOU had an Ace but might check behind without. The absence of a bet reduces but does not eliminate the possibility of an Ace with your opponent.

This means that you are probably ahead. However, will he call? You were in steal position so could have a wide range of hands. From his point of view your 3-bet on the flop after being CR could be yet another macho move from an over-aggro with sweet FA. Many would back off and see a cheap showdown with a PP or having paired the flop here. Of course HE hates the A and K as much as you do.

Does this mean he will fold a pair if you bet? Once again we do not know but all our experience tells us that people do NOT fold much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I would bet here and then curse myself for being an idiot when I lose the ONE extra bet. The good news is that I get a pat on the back when he does call and lose.
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

T

[stigmata]

It's also possible that he is on a flush draw and looking to check-raise a river that he thinks you are likely to bet. I don't think he's calling a bet with a lower PP very often. Therefore I check.