Call an all in with overpair?

[StLouisMike]

.10/.20 NLHE
9 Handed

Hero is BB with 99 ($66.44)
Villian is SB with ? ($39.90)

Everyone folds to Villian who raises to $1 (5xbb)
Hero in BB calls the $.80

Flop: 8s4h2s ($2.00)
Villian bets $1.60 ($3.60)
Hero reraises to $4.80 ($8.40)
Villian reraises to $30.00 leaving him with $9 and change ($38.40)

Fold the overpair? I did not have any notes opponent as he was only there for 15 min or so before this hand. It clearly looks like a blind steal from SB PF but, once he reraises my reraise it seems quite certain he has a larger overpair than mine.

[Malachii]

No. Villain is likely to have an flush draw + overcard (which you are barely beating) or a bigger pair and you're crushed. He might have a mere 8, but I don't think 99 matches up very well against his hand range.

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the overpair? I did not have any notes opponent as he was only there for 15 min or so before this hand. It clearly looks like a blind steal from SB PF but, once he reraises my reraise it seems quite certain he has a larger overpair than mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not wild about 99 as an overpair. It might be top pair at the moment, but by the river, it could likely be 3rd pair for a lot of money. At the end of the day, all you got is a pair of 9s. I'd fold.

Without a read, fold this every time. Villain sure seems to like his hand. Your raise is generally representing top pair with good kicker, so he probably thinks you have A-8. And he doesn't seem too nervous. Fold.

[rikz]

Overpairs have you beat.
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 2s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 9h 75 7.58 915 92.42 0 0.00 0.076
Ts Tc 915 92.42 75 7.58 0 0.00 0.924

Villain's draws are probably very strong

gutshot + straight draw
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 2s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 9h 433 43.74 557 56.26 0 0.00 0.437
6s 5s 557 56.26 433 43.74 0 0.00 0.563

overcards + flush draw
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 2s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 9h 451 45.56 539 54.44 0 0.00 0.456
Qs Js 539 54.44 451 45.56 0 0.00 0.544

pair and flush draw
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 2s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 9h 470 47.47 520 52.53 0 0.00 0.475
5s 4s 520 52.53 470 47.47 0 0.00 0.525

Obviously a set is way a head
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 2s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 9h 79 7.98 911 92.02 0 0.00 0.080
4s 4c 911 92.02 79 7.98 0 0.00 0.920

as is two pair, which is not completely unreasonable for the SB in an unraised pot.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 2s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 9h 252 25.45 738 74.55 0 0.00 0.255
8c 4d 738 74.55 252 25.45 0 0.00 0.745

What are you beating?

TPTK
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 2s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 9h 774 78.18 216 21.82 0 0.00 0.782
8c Ah 216 21.82 774 78.18 0 0.00 0.218

TPWK
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 2s 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 9h 905 91.41 85 8.59 0 0.00 0.914
9c 8c 85 8.59 905 91.41 0 0.00 0.086

You also are ahead of underpairs like 77, but that seems like a very unlikely holding.

Given the action, the strong hands and the strong draws seem much more likely than the TPTK/TPWK hands.

Since you are even behind most of the decent draws, not to mention all of the possible made hands other than TP, I think folding is the right thing to do.

[StLouisMike]

I folded without too much hesitation. If it were not between the blinds I would have had no decision at all. He went on tilt after losing a hand a few minutes later and just started spewing chips. He went broke quickly after that which makes me wonder what he really had that one hand.