what i learned today by elysium

[elysium]

10-20 solid/ aggressive game. i have JJ on the button. UTG raises in. he's a very profittable opponent to have in the game. i don't like calling someone a fish. anyway, the PO raises in, and he's reraised by a solid aggressive in the UTG+1, a couple of cold-calls to me, and i call, blinds fold.

the flop) 884r the UTG checks to the UTG+1 who bets. it's folded to me and i raise. and this is where i begin to learn a lesson i will never forget. the UTG 3-bets it. i now know that he has trip 8's. he wouldn't know what to do with an over-pair and would only 3-bet into two dangerous opponents with trips. well, the solid aggressive caps it. this tells me my initial read of AKs or AQs is wrong. i know that he has AA or KK now, or perhaps QQ.

it's 2 cold to me now. i didn't really know what to do. the implied odds that the aggressive action was multiplying wasn't getting through my thick skull. i was thinking in terms of facing a cold-call and the chances that my hand was in the lead, which i knew it wasn't. and i folded.

rather than hang around on the turn to see what happened, i got up to get a soda. as i was waiting for the waitress to serve me, it dawned on me that i made a terrible fold. the reason the fold was so terrible was initially the very reason i folded. the aggressive raising and reraising would have continued on the turn. had i spiked the 2 outer, my hand would have been totally concealed and the implied odds would have worked out to 23-1 to 25-1 and more! i was getting better implied odds than if it were only one small bet to me and i called. why? because if it were only one small bet to me, the future action would have been in doubt. they may have folded on the turn or check-called etc. what does this mean?

what i think this means is that it is almost never correct to fold your over-pair on the flop when you know that you're up against trips in a 3-way or better. the odds you're getting on the spike are always correct.

what i'm not sure about:
the questionable area of this thinking is that even if you spike a boat with your over-pair, it is not unbeatable. there could be as many as 4 cards in the deck that will give your opponent a bigger boat even if you spike yours on the turn. and of course you could be up against quads already, or your opponent could improve to quads. and finally, there is andy fox who says that the rails are crowded with players who call 2 cold hoping to draw out. so, there is some possibility of not being in the lead even if you spike, and of your opponent hitting a bigger boat on the river. do these factors matter? or are the slim chances that your spiked boat won't hold up too remote to consider? i'd say 19 out of 20 times your boat will hold up. anyway, i will say it again; it is never correct to fold your over-pair on the flop in a 3-way when you know that you're against trips on a paired board even if you must call 2 cold. agree or disagree? i would like to hear your opinions.

[mike l.]

it's close but i think it's a fold. you can only count on something like 3 bets on average going in per street not counting your own and that's optimistic. youre getting 12.5 to 1 on your flop call. i think preflop 3 bettor may wise up by the river and realise he's up against trips and stop raising meaning less bets go in. it's a fold elysium.

well stated post btw. more useful now that we can understand what youre saying, but we miss the old more confusing you.

[SoBeDude]

rather than hang around on the turn to see what happened, i got up to get a soda. as i was waiting for the waitress to serve me, it dawned on me that i made a terrible fold. the reason the fold was so terrible was initially the very reason i folded. the aggressive raising and reraising would have continued on the turn. had i spiked the 2 outer, my hand would have been totally concealed and the implied odds would have worked out to 23-1 to 25-1 and more! i was getting better implied odds than if it were only one small bet to me and i called. why? because if it were only one small bet to me, the future action would have been in doubt. they may have folded on the turn or check-called etc. what does this mean?

Hi elysium,

You can't assume your implied odds are that strong. If you spike a jack on the turn, and raise UTG's turn bet, they're both going to instantly turn and look at you...the guy they haven't been worried about. They'll realize if you stayed through the earlier heat and are suddenly raising, you've got not just a good hand, but a great one. They'll probably revert to check-call mode, and there's a good chance UTG+1 will fold.

I don't think your implied odds are as good as you think. It would really have to be two completely asleep players to keep reraising if you here.

Good fold.

-Scott

[elysium]

hi mike
thanks for the response. i feel better now because i didn't of course hide my eyes from the turn card like i said i did. and when the raisers went at one another like a couple ol' ladies when a totally meaningless J hit on the turn, i didn't almost cry, i had to locate the waitress for a handkerchief. and i had to go back and face a run of the worst cards ever dealt in history. i spent the rest of the night folding, and folding, and folding. i think i hit the dealers knuckle real good once. that was a little victory.

[Diplomat]

Well, I'll employ my primate-level math skills to try to figure it out:

8.25 big bets in the pot pre-flop (I think, including the blinds). 5 more big bets in the pot on the flop. A maximum of 6 big bets implied, unless they are morons. 1 big bet for you to call. I've got it as 19.25-1 pot odds. 22.5-1 against turning a jack.

So yeah it's close. But I'm still folding, because the odds are against me, and because I doubt I could fold on the turn for one bet if it were a brick. And then I'm looking at a chain reaction of errors, because I might call the river too because the pot is so massive.

See what I mean?

[brad]

also river beats u sometimes, etc.

[ACPlayer]

Fold if you are positive. Calling 2 cold with what i caclulate as 12 or 13 to 1 in current odds is awful.

Consider though the chance if any that you are actually ahead and what you would do if your actual holding was QQ or KK. Makes life interesting eh? Consider also whether you want to call this particular 3-bettor preflop. There are some players (not many) that I would have little hesitation in releasing JJ pre-flop and there are some players (not many) that i would consider a 4 bet (depends on what the cap is).

[elindauer]

This is really bad advice. First, although it will happen sometimes, you can't count on the number of bets you need going into pot when you hit. Too many times your opponents are going to chicken out and go passive on you when you catch. Even worse, the times when you are behind or get outdrawn, though rare, are going to be particularly hard on your bankroll, as you will no doubt be capping every street trying to make up those implied odds.

The math just doesn't work out, even in this large pot which involved multiple players calling 3 cold preflop. To suggest that it would always be right to call here is then, by extension, pure insanity.



I know what you're doing elysium. You've reached the pinnacle of poker. Your game is so good, you can no longer increase your win rate by making your own game better, so you're following the obvious course of action, which is to try to make your opponents worse. My respect has risen to a new high.

[elysium]

hi everyone
what no one is addressing, and what i think may be getting over-looked because it's not that easy to see at first, is that the UTG was going to definately bet-out on the turn, and definately get raised by the UTG+1 who had rockets. since there was absolutely no doubt about what these opponents were holding and how the action would continue on the turn, and furthermore that the call of the 2 cold on the flop would close the action, albeit i was definately behind UTG trips, and importantly, and what i think may be getting over-looked; my two opponents each thought that he was in lead. the UTG thought that he was ahead of the UTG+1, and visa versa. that's the important thing here, and the reason itself that the fold was wrong. both of my opponents thought that they were in the lead. also, equally important, the J hitting on the turn would not produce a scary board. not only would my hand have been concealed, but it would not have done anything to discourage the raising and reraising that had ensued on the flop. and please follow me here because what i'm about to say doesn't fit so neatly into the box we sometimes think in:

so far, everyone has looked at this from the implied odds point of view because clearly, i'm not getting correct odds on the flop to make the call. then, after calculating the possible implied odds on paper, the call of 2 cold still proves sub-optimal. toss in diplomat's excellent contribution; that perhaps it would only be one BB to me on the turn, and then maybe i would scrap my read and make the call thinking i might be in the lead, and make another bad call, and this starts to look like an easy fold. and remember, i folded. i want to be told these things. however, i am riveted onto the central issue, the only issue; that i was positioned between two opponents who believed their hand was the winner, and my spike card would not have produced a scary board and my hand would have been concealed. this is the issue.

the reason for this post was to address this specific issue alone, not implied odds because on paper, we never have the correct implied odds to spike a 2 outer when faced with 2 cold. but this thinking is wrong in this specific instance. when you are positioned between two opponents, both of whom believe that their hand is best, and both of whom who would have kept on raising the flop if it didn't have a cap, and you have an over-pair to the board pair, but are clearly against at least trips, even though there is no possibility of being in the lead, it is always correct under these circumstances to call 2 cold if spiking your over-pair doesn't produce a scary board.

both winners raising and reraising? board spike no scare? call 2 cold over-pair on fwop.

[bobgreen]

Elysium,
Well it is simple math regarding implied odds. If the turn is always capped, you can win 6 big bets plus 2 or 4 on the river. If the turn is capped 50% of the time, and 2 bets 50% of the time, you expect to win 5 big bets plus 2 on the river. Plug in the liklihood of a turn cap and compute your pot odds.

It is a good point. I've folded many times when I knew I was beat and later realized I had the price to call. This special case where you expect extreme action on the future rounds needs to be considered. How about this: you flop a gutshot, two agressive opponents (who "know" you would never chase the gutshot) go to war on the flop. You expect them to escalate on the turn. Maybe you actually do have the implied odds to chase.
Bob