Why Current Online Win Rates Won't Persist

[pineapple888]

Yeah, I see your point.

Cause when your home table champs found Vegas and the WSOP, and were satisfied with much less in winnings than the top pros, the top pros really got hurt bad.

Then when college students, who were satisfied with much less in winnings than online pros with actual responsibilities, found online poker, the online pros got hurt bad.

Oh, wait... never mind...

[Innocentius]

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So if I undertsand your logic, you're basically saying you only want to play against people in your own wealth bracket, and you don't think poor people should be allowed to play with rich people?


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I really can't understand where you got this from. It's not even remotely like anything the OP has written. Are you just making things up or did I miss something?

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Someone mentioned sshe is only written in english. A very large number of educated people in other countries speak english. This is just another reason the ratio of sharks to fish will be greater.

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When I said this in my original reply this thread, it was in regards to the general population of a non-English speaking country. These people that you talk about are only a small percentage of the population and the exception.

And even if the country has English as it's common language, there's other barriers to entry. India, while making great strides, is generally a poor country. Most people have difficulty purchasing a basic computer, but there are plenty of very educated people there with the analytical background.

You should think of all of the barriers to successful entry as a linear equation where each factor will have weights with respect to the general population of a nation.

I still believe that the only way this would be a serious concern is when the ratio of sharks to fish entering the pond is off balance. But poker is very Darwinian and equalibrium will be reached regardless of what happens. I would be more concerned when an "unnatural species" is introduced into the environment like a bot; this is something that could destroy online poker.

Here are the problems with the OP's argument as I see it.

1. Most of these countries have a poor economy because they have a small middle class. There are wealthy and poor people with not much in between. Introducing a game to these countries will also bring wealthy players who will splash around at the higher limits.

2. Winning 15/30 players do not grow on trees. Few adults that do not currently know the rules of poker could be winning players at 15/30. The lower limits you could teach someone a formulaic approach to win, so any affect would likely only be felt there.

3. Most "sweatshops" do not require much training for the work involved. It will likely take months of training before any employee is profitable. The employees will be paid a low wage to train, but it still takes time and money, plus you have to have someone educate them. I think setting these sweatshops up is easier said than done.

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When I said this in my original reply this thread, it was in regards to the general population of a non-English speaking country. These people that you talk about are only a small percentage of the population and the exception.



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This is not true. How many people in japan and germany and france speak english? It is by no means a small percentage of the population. In south america and in mexico the percentage is much smaller, but among educated people it is still substantial. Either way, if watching poker were to become popular in south america and mexico, someone is going to write or translate poker books into spanish anyways.

I still think you are thinking of kids in sandals and flies on their face when you think about 3rd world countries. I am not sure about india, but in mexico and south america, plenty of people have computers and internet. Most of them are educated and a large number of them speak english. Ricky martin, shakira, salma hayek, antonio banderas, are examples of upperclass educated people from mexico that spoke english long before they came here. This is the case with most college educated people from 2nd and 3rd world countries. Basically poker is not going to appeal to lower class citizens in these places, it will to upperclass citizens. Most of them will be educated, most of them will have access to the internet. If poker becomes trendy in these places, they will be the ones joining the game. I don't think this is going to dry up the fish pool, but it is going to dilute it enough that winrates will drop. And like the OP said, they will settle for lesser win rates then we do.

[Innocentius]

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Ricky martin, shakira, salma hayek, antonio banderas, are examples of upperclass educated people from mexico

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This is of course completely beside your point, but I think Antonio Banderas is from Spain, and Shakira from Columbia.

you are right, I confuse thalia and shakira. Thalia also speaks english though. And i always thought Antonio spoke funny spanish, so that makes sense.

[RikaKazak]

don't forget about big tournament wins, people who get lucky, win $1 million in a tourny, often will give a lot of it back (yes I know taxes etc. take away) but they'll give it back and it'll just circulate.

Also, a lot of "sharks" are leaving too. I myself want to get out as soon as possible and just deal with the real estate I'm buying off my poker winnings. So in about 5 years my playing will drop from 25 hours a week 4-8 tabling to 5-10 hours a week 2 tabling (my favorite amount)

Also I myself play drunk 3/6 limit and I know I lose in that game, just entertainment to me to raise 7,2o UTG and crack AA, so there will be those players.

AND when online gets fill with other country pros, online may or may not get hurt, but if it gets hurt bad we'll just move to live play.

[pyroponic]

Don't forget BR and swings, getting a good BR together for $.5/1 or $1/2 might be a stretch, plus there'd more incentive to withdraw if that BR got to a decent size, and the natural poker swings may discourage them from playing much quicker than a U.S. microlimit player.

[RikaKazak]

Well, I make $150 a hour, I know many U.S. workers that are making $30 a hour as an engineer. If you're an engineer I would generally say you have what it takes to beat online poker. So why wouldn't a U.S. engineer quit his job and play poker for a living if he can make 3 times that fairly easily?

Theres LOTS of reasons, religion, doesn't enjoy it, etc. etc. the same will happen in 3rd world countries.