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#11
11-14-2005, 06:20 PM
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Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Math, please. This cannot possibly be correct. TT is 3:1 over any 2. The bubble is over. [/ QUOTE ] To quote Tigerite, ITM is like a mini-bubble. If Hero folds, stack sizes look like this: 6420 3030 5520 (Hero) (34.77%) If Hero calls and wins, stack sizes are 3030 11940 (Hero) (45.95%) Hero needs to win 75.67% of hands when he "calls the all-in" to break-even. Calling a push of any two with TT doesn't get him there. Is my math off? [/ QUOTE ] I think it is. Check mine and see if it makes sense. You're ignoring the fact that hero has 20% of the prize pool if he calls and loses. It's a bit complicated here b/c hero has villain covered by 100 chips (and the chip amount adds to 14970), but let's use the OP's numbers. Possible results: Hero folds: 34.77% of prize pool, as you calculated. Hero calls and wins: 45.95% of the prize pool, as you calculated. Hero calls and loses: (V-11640),(SB-3030),(H-100), Hero has 20.47% of the prize pool. I'm rounding this to 20% for sanity purposes Hero's total equity from calling is (%win)*(.4595) + (%lose)*(.2). Since %lose = (1-%win), for calling to break-even, .3477 = (W)*(.4595) + (1-W)*(.2) .3477 = (.4595)W -.2W + .2 .1477 = (.2595)W .5692 = W So, hero has to win 57% of the time when he calls. If Villain is pushing any 2, we're talking about something like the top 20%: 55+,A7o+,A3s+,KTo+,K8s+,QJo,QTs+ that we need to call. Of course, we need a bit more hand than this, b/c V's not pushing any 2, but we need a bit less than that b/c V will fold to our push fairly often here. Going the other way, unless V is raise/calling all in with about his top 17% (66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+), we have the necessary equity here. Hopefully this bit of handwaving suffices b/c I think it's pretty clear that if the 57% number is correct, then TT is plenty of hand here. 
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#12
11-14-2005, 06:37 PM
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Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
[ QUOTE ]
You're ignoring the fact that hero has 20% of the prize pool if he calls and loses. [/ QUOTE ] That's all you had to say. I'm used to doing the math on the bubble. Sorry for the trouble. I feel a lot better that my insticts (and OPs') were right. Thanks again, parappa.
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#13
11-14-2005, 06:46 PM
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Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You're ignoring the fact that hero has 20% of the prize pool if he calls and loses. [/ QUOTE ] That's all you had to say. I'm used to doing the math on the bubble. Sorry for the trouble. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I figured that when I got about halfway through my post, but by then I was having too much fun to stop. It's been a while since I worked one of those through. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#14
11-15-2005, 11:45 AM
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Re: UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Math, please. This cannot possibly be correct. TT is 3:1 over any 2. The bubble is over. [/ QUOTE ] To quote Tigerite, ITM is like a mini-bubble. If Hero folds, stack sizes look like this: 6420 3030 5520 (Hero) (34.77%) If Hero calls and wins, stack sizes are 3030 11940 (Hero) (45.95%) Hero needs to win 75.67% of hands when he "calls the all-in" to break-even. Calling a push of any two with TT doesn't get him there. Is my math off? [/ QUOTE ] I think it is. Check mine and see if it makes sense. You're ignoring the fact that hero has 20% of the prize pool if he calls and loses. It's a bit complicated here b/c hero has villain covered by 100 chips (and the chip amount adds to 14970), but let's use the OP's numbers. Possible results: Hero folds: 34.77% of prize pool, as you calculated. Hero calls and wins: 45.95% of the prize pool, as you calculated. Hero calls and loses: (V-11640),(SB-3030),(H-100), Hero has 20.47% of the prize pool. I'm rounding this to 20% for sanity purposes Hero's total equity from calling is (%win)*(.4595) + (%lose)*(.2). Since %lose = (1-%win), for calling to break-even, .3477 = (W)*(.4595) + (1-W)*(.2) .3477 = (.4595)W -.2W + .2 .1477 = (.2595)W .5692 = W So, hero has to win 57% of the time when he calls. If Villain is pushing any 2, we're talking about something like the top 20%: 55+,A7o+,A3s+,KTo+,K8s+,QJo,QTs+ that we need to call. Of course, we need a bit more hand than this, b/c V's not pushing any 2, but we need a bit less than that b/c V will fold to our push fairly often here. Going the other way, unless V is raise/calling all in with about his top 17% (66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+), we have the necessary equity here. Hopefully this bit of handwaving suffices b/c I think it's pretty clear that if the 57% number is correct, then TT is plenty of hand here. [/ QUOTE ] On the ITM "bubble" I actually use 0.75/0.25/0 as the payouts, because everyone has the $20 "tied up". Not sure what difference that would make to these calculations, I guess I'll do them later or something. Well ok so I decided to now.. Fold EV = 0.3692 Call/win = 0.6488 Call/lose = 0.0118, which is so close to 0, it may as well be 0. .3692 = (W)*(.6488) + (1-W)*(.0118) .3692 = (.6488)W -.0118W + .0118 .3574 = (.637)W .5610 = W So basically, yeah, you need to be a 56% favourite. If I assume the lose EV is 0, which is the same as yours with 0.2, I actually get 0.5691, which is close enough to say the results are the same.
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