UB $5.50 - Non-Results-Oriented Push Check

Button had been tight throughout the whole game but loosened up a bit once ITM. I'd played an extremely active/aggressive game from almost the first hand, stealing his blind from the button or SB on numerous occasions. Questioned my action thinking perhaps I should be avoiding such big stack on big stack action (no matter how juicy that may sound) at this point.

Blinds are 200/400

Button t5820
SB t3230
Hero t5920

Hero has TdTs

Button raises to t1400
Hero insta-pushes??

[kevkev60614]

There are only four HU hands better than TT. Unless you can think of a better way to get his chips in, push.

Indeed. I suppose settle for 3rd if he's got a higher PP or I lose a coinflip to two overs, but obviously become the overwhelming chipleader if called and win.

Can anyone provide a good reason for just calling and re-evaluating on the flop? Truth be told I didn't even consider flat calling.

[kevkev60614]

I just ran some math here. If there's no chance you resteal, i.e. he always calls your push, and I put him on a range of:

A7o+, A7s+, KQo+, KQs+, 77+

You lose about 8% of the prize pool by pushing here rather than folding according to ICM. Which is a lot. So strike what I said before and hope someone more intelligent responds.

Edited for clarity.

[kevkev60614]

If he would raise and then call a push with any two, it's still slightly -$EV to you, according to my calculations. I just gave myself a headache.

[Karak567]

The range you give him is MUCH too tight.

I insta push here.

[kevkev60614]

[ QUOTE ]
The range you give him is MUCH too tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably true, but I pointed out in my last post that if villain raised with any two and will call our push, it doesn't matter. The +$EV from pushing here comes if there's a chance villain will fold.

If it matters, the button called and showed Ks8s. His range was actually a smidge wider than I would have guessed and a TON wider than suggested by Kev.

The complicating factors here that can't be *completely* covered by ICM are my own table image and button's tightness. Based on both of our play throughout the tournament, I'd say he'd be less likely to raise on a total steal and he'd be more likely to think I'm coming over the top w/garbage. But it all goes back to the "only four better PPs" argument (tee hee).

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The range you give him is MUCH too tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably true, but I pointed out in my last post that if villain raised with any two and will call our push, it doesn't matter. The +$EV from pushing here comes if there's a chance villain will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Math, please. This cannot possibly be correct. TT is 3:1 over any 2. The bubble is over.

If there's no chance that button will fold and he will push/call with any 2, there is no difference than if he pushed all in from the button with any 2 and we called. SNGPT gives me +5% of the prize pool to call on that assumption. In fact, if he's pushing with top 10%, this call is slightly +EV. If we have any folding equity it is even better than that.

[kevkev60614]

[ QUOTE ]
Math, please. This cannot possibly be correct. TT is 3:1 over any 2. The bubble is over.

[/ QUOTE ]

To quote Tigerite, ITM is like a mini-bubble.

If Hero folds, stack sizes look like this:
6420
3030
5520 (Hero) (34.77%)

If Hero calls and wins, stack sizes are
3030
11940 (Hero) (45.95%)

Hero needs to win 75.67% of hands when he "calls the all-in" to break-even. Calling a push of any two with TT doesn't get him there. Is my math off?