2-4 Turn decision?

Seat 1: <font color="red"> Hero </font> ($141 in chips)
Seat 2: MattyBells ($74 in chips)
Seat 3: dontttttt ($54 in chips)
Seat 4: Stevo72 ($54.50 in chips)
Seat 5: FLIPTOGOOD ($52.50 in chips)
Seat 6: jamesr450 ($97.50 in chips)
MattyBells: posts small blind $1
dontttttt: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to <font color="red"> Hero </font> [K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
Stevo72: calls $2
FLIPTOGOOD: folds
jamesr450: folds
<font color="red"> Hero </font> : raises $2 to $4
MattyBells: calls $3
dontttttt: calls $2
Stevo72: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
MattyBells: bets $2
dontttttt: folds
Stevo72: calls $2
<font color="red"> Hero </font> : calls $2
*** TURN *** [4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] [5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
MattyBells: bets $4
Stevo72: calls $4
<font color="red"> Hero </font> ? (Does the inside straight draw give me odds to call this profitably. I dont know if my king or ace are live as king/ace jack is a possible holding for one of my opponents). If I give my ace and king 1.5 outs each then I have 7 outs but if some else is holding an ace I might split it the two hits. How many outs should I give myself here and I should I have made this call.

[Dariel86]

I would fold here. Your A/K could also be drawing dead to AJ / KJ and a threeflush could come on the board

[Nick Royale]

After I read middle limit holdem poker I've gotten very tight in these situations. Knowing that book is tight beyond reasoble sense I would still count you outs like:

Overs: 1.5 outs each -&gt; ~3 outs
Gut-shot: 1.5 outs (another ace or a 6 might be out, and a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] puts 3 to a flush on the board)

So I would give you at best 5 outs, which would lead us to a fold. I'm not adding any implied odds here. It's a pretty slim decision IMO.

[ErrantNight]

i think you're discounting the outs hero has WAY too much, here

[ErrantNight]

but he could also have 10 outs

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you're discounting the outs hero has WAY too much, here

[/ QUOTE ]
Overs: 1.75 outs each -&gt; ~3.5 outs
Gut-shot: 2 outs (another ace or a 6 might be out, and a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] puts 3 to a flush on the board)

Better? I really don't think we can give more than this. It would turn it into a call, but it's still a pretty marginal.

[ErrantNight]

in your next post will you bump the overs up another .25 outs apiece?

and why must a 6 be out? or a flush draw? or another ace? yeah, you should take these things into consideration, but a single flop bet and a call doesn't mean that you're reverse dominated and suddenly you'll make your hand and still lose. if an ace fell on the flop and that J on the turn would you really consider yourself 50/50 to win, because somebody likely has AJ, or something? that's essentially what you're doing when you give halve your outs because of worse-case perspectives on opponent's holdings.

yeah, the turn fold is easy... but the flop call is damned easy, too.

[Hoi Polloi]

Don't use handles in your posts. Use a converter -- much easier to read; they keep a running pot count for instance.

You're getting 8 to 1 on the call drawing to a 1-card str8 and tainted OCs--KJ, AJ have you reverse dominated. I'd fold with 2 players already in.

That said, why no flop raise for a free card? If somebody bets out on the turn it makes this decision much easier, IMO.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
and why must a 6 be out? or a flush draw? or another ace?

[/ QUOTE ]
I was thinking all these combined... A 6 or a flushdraw isn't likely, but possible and in that case the outs for a straight is 0. Another A is pretty likely and would make our straight outs 2.

[ QUOTE ]
if an ace fell on the flop and that J on the turn would you really consider yourself 50/50 to win, because somebody likely has AJ, or something?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, we don't have to reverse dominated to hit and lose. We could be up against 44/33/JJ a flush draw and also more unlikely holdings like J4/43. A 2 isn't likely, but that would also eliminate your A outs. Maybe 2 outs each is better for the overs...