Nit of the Day: Drawing Dead and Raising the River

[DavidC]

Boz...

If I haven't already come to the river answer, yet, I think I'm pretty close. There could be a mistake or two in that formula. However, it's only half the answer here. We need to figure out our EV on the river in order to determine when we should be calling the turn.

Three possibilities exist:
-don't improve
-improve and win
-improve and lose

Each has their own 'V', which creates an EV for us in this situation. I'm not entirely sure, though, how to use those numbers to determine what our pot odds have to be on the turn in order to justify a call.

Specifically, if you expect to lose money more money on the river than you win on the river, then you need juicier pot odds to make your turn call.

THAT's the formula that I'm looking for.