This is why you should raise preflop with Aces

[faman]

Okay, so I obviously made a horrendous flop call. I knew at the time that it was thin at best, but I remember reading something in HPFAP that says it's occasionally correct to see the turn cheaply even when immediate pot odds don't justify it, as long as you're willing to give it up on the turn if you whiff (although there's a very good chance that this was not one of those times when it's correct [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

Thanks to everyone for letting me know how much I suck. Time to go reread HPFAP again!

Here's the big question though: who's play was worse, mine or the two guys with rockets? They were willing to let me see the turn for 1 SB, and I was willing to invest 1 SB to try to pull off a major suckout. I think that the 1 SB paid for itself in implied tilt odds alone [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

On a related note, how would I calculate the pot/implied odds needed to justify a call in this spot? Should I make a post in the Probability forum?

[k000k]

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I remember reading something in HPFAP that says it's occasionally correct to see the turn cheaply even when immediate pot odds don't justify it, as long as you're willing to give it up on the turn if you whiff (although there's a very good chance that this was not one of those times when it's correct [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])


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You can call without pot odds ONLY if you are positive you can make it back in implied IF you hit... IE, lets say you have a gutshot str8 draw. See the turn if you have 10:1 pot odds, cuz your straight will usually be good, and you'll get turn and river bets to make up for the slightly short pot odds on the flop. HOWEVER: If the board is suited, paired, or you have the dummy end of the str8, the true 11:1 odds may not be enough, since your str8 will lose often in these scenarios.

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I think that the 1 SB paid for itself in implied tilt odds alone [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


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'Tilt odds', thats a good one!

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On a related note, how would I calculate the pot/implied odds needed to justify a call in this spot? Should I make a post in the Probability forum?

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Well, you have essentially nothing.. It's about 22:1 for your backdoors.. You have to count the cost of the flop AND turn bets in your calculations, that'll be probably 1.5 bets, possibly MUCH more... Someone holding 9 is gonna start raising, and they have outs to a boat, as do any pocket pairs, which kills BOTH your backdoors... Lets say it'll cost you 2BB to see the river, at 25:1 which discounts for boats, etc.. There should be a final pot of about 50BB to make this call worthwhile.. The only way to get 50 in there is if everyone does a lot of raising, but that drives that 50BB figure into 3 digits... The more players raise, the worse this situation gets. You simply can not (correctly) call.

[dfscott]

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Here's the big question though: who's play was worse, mine or the two guys with rockets?

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This is definitely not the big question. Less fishy that the fish isn't what you should be shooting for.

Not to blast you, because you obviously do make a good point about the reasons to raise pre-flop, but don't confused good results with good decisions -- this play will cost you a lot of money long-term. We all make mistakes chasing when we shouldn't. Just file this one away as a "free" lesson (actually, you got paid for this lesson!), and don't do it again. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Wada]

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Not to blast you, because you obviously do make a good point about the reasons to raise pre-flop,

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Good point.
So Faman - you obviously would have folded had they raised preflop?

[faman]

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So Faman - you obviously would have folded had they raised preflop?

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Yeah, I definitely would've folded to any preflop raise or flop raise, and probably 99% of the time I would've folded to the flop bet anyway. I guess I was in the mood to "gamb00l" and I managed to (incorrectly) convince myself that the implied odds justified the call [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[HajiShirazu]

While the flop call is bad, there's no reason to think that you wouldn't likely be ahead if you caught a ten or an eight.
It's still really bad though. Drawing to T8 "overcards" with a pair on the board against seven players isn't a winning move. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[kiemo]

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So Faman - you obviously would have folded had they raised preflop?

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Yeah, I definitely would've folded to any preflop raise

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Quotes like this shouldnt be said.

If UTG raises and everyone between you and him call are you folding then? I hope not.

[faman]

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If UTG raises and everyone between you and him call are you folding then? I hope not.

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You bring up a good point, I guess I shouldn't have said "any" preflop raise. But how do you determine how many callers/limpers you need before playing a hand like a suited one gap? This is one of the areas where I'm still a little confused.

In your example I would definitely call, but if even 1-2 players folded I would probably also fold and I don't know if this is correct. What kind of guidelines do you guys use when making preflop decisions with weaker hands like 108s?

[citizenkn]

wow...so weird. I posted a very similar hand a few weeks ago. I had Q-8 in BB, bunch of limpers, I flop top two pair, and the betting goes nuts. At the end, two players turn over AA and I drag a giganto pot.

One person limping with aces, I can see. But two people, on the same hand, BOTH limping with aces? And now I've seen two examples in just a few weeks. That's crazy....love Party!