Snakes on a Plane

[TStoneMBD]

they might, there is certainly a percentage of time when the AK will raise. i dont know what percentage i would go with on that, it depends on alot of factors of course.

if AK raises it allows the coldcaller to correctly fold his hand when its incorrect to pay 2 bets. by checkraising he is forced to pay those 2 bets so you make him make the mistake rather than allowing to escape it.

you said that you like taking a donk/call, donk/call, checkfold line which seems reasonable if you do decide to donk the flop, but notice that you ended up paying alot of bets to finally arrive at the conclusion that your hand isnt good. donking didnt net you any more value and it didnt save you any bets.

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they might, there is certainly a percentage of time when the AK will raise. i dont know what percentage i would go with on that, it depends on alot of factors of course.

if AK raises it allows the coldcaller to correctly fold his hand when its incorrect to pay 2 bets. by checkraising he is forced to pay those 2 bets so you make him make the mistake rather than allowing to escape it.

you said that you like taking a donk/call, donk/call, checkfold line which seems reasonable if you do decide to donk the flop, but notice that you ended up paying alot of bets to finally arrive at the conclusion that your hand isnt good. donking didnt net you any more value and it didnt save you any bets.

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it costs one extra SB than calling down and you stop free cards, which are a big consideration. this guy raises AK close to 100%, and AQ and AJ and AT IMO

[TStoneMBD]

ok well i see your reasoning for donking is different than i thought it would be, because i didnt expect you to think that Ax would raise close to 100%. i dont agree with that number but i respect your judgment. however, you say that donking prevents free cards. do you really think Ax is going to check this flop if its going to be raising a donk 100% of the time? checkraising and betting the turn stops free cards too and it forces the caller into making mistakes.

[Catt]

Wow. I thought everyone used Excel to run various scenarios in certain situations -- it really gives you a feel for how modifying certain assumptions changes the hand outlook.

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getting 12:1 if the UTG doesnt cap or 13:2 if he does (not all that often) is more than enough imo to chase your 4 outter with a good chance in having the best hand.

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He's getting 13:2 if UTG doesn't cap, and 18:4 if he does. UTG raised and Button 3-bet the turn.

Edit: Forgot to add that SC's movie poster is effing great.

[bobbyi]

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this guy raises AK close to 100%, and AQ and AJ and AT IMO

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What if he has, say, 77? I think he folds to a flop bet, but bets if checked to so I make some money from him and get to use him to trap the button for two bets.

[bobbyi]

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I would have bet out because the hand is vulnerable and UTG might raise with overs and fold out button. As it is it seems like you didn't give button a chance to fold or make a mistake by calling.

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1) There is no guarantee that he raises with overs, although I agree that is quite possible.
2) There is no guarantee that he has overs. He is a guy with a 24 pfr who open-raised in the cutoff. He could have AK, but he could also easily have, say, A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He's very unlikely to raise that on the flop. He will very likely bet if I check.

[B Dids]

I didn't. I had the impression this was the stuff you appeared to whip out pretty quickly.

[TStoneMBD]

oops. i have no idea how i arrived at my figures there. i dont use excel because i dont have a spreadsheet program but could get one. i also dont know how to do all these calculations in it and i didnt realize excel was good for this function. i do my own calculations for hand ranges very often but im interested in switching over to excel if it makes these exercises easier to do. i am also aware of how a small change in an estimation of a particular variable will change your equity significantly which is the problem with alot of these calculations.

posting hands under the old method is really just asking people to estimate hand ranges and likelihood of those hands and coming to a conclusion based on feel. using calculations allows us to to remove the human error when we add up our hand ranges and produce a conclusion based on feel, which is certainly great. however, doing equity calculations for every hand is very time consuming in comparison to the current method and the current method allows us to remove many more hands in a shorter span of time.

i think that if we want to revolutionize the forum by making everything calculation based that would be great. to start this people posting threads need to include the variables and the formula for solving the hand and then we could argue over the variables and the likelihood of those variables.

this leads to a much higher level of discussion. josh says he doesnt have hands to post because he does everything in his excel method but hes certainly going to be wrong alot of the time when he comes up with his hand ranges. josh, why dont you start posting hands that you calculated in excel and discuss these hand ranges with us to get the ball rolling. id like to see you post your hand ranges for this particular hand (based on likelihood) and the results of those hand ranges to determine the equity of calling.

[Catt]

It is really quite useful. You sound like you do a lot of the math on most hands anyway -- I'd imagine that getting comfortable with Excel or a similar spreadsheet program (which really doesn't take all that long) could save you a lot of time. The key is being able to play with a bunch of variables and seeing the changing outputs one after the other -- I cannot stress for those who haven't done it (longhanded or in a spreadsheet and it sounds like TStone has done it) how surprisingly sensitive some assumptions can be to the overall EV and how much it opens one's eyes as to the importance of honing good judgment about your opponents' range and probability of actions.

I may dig up an example -- I'm afraid the only one I have handy is a very complex situation that involved multiple sensitive variables over at least two streets and would probably only make using something like this look both (1) ridiculously complex to someone not comfortable with Excel, and (2) pretty marginal utility since so many future events need to be accounted for.

[SomethingClever]

Sorry.

this is cracking my s*** up