Do we take the free card?

[RunDownHouse]

Posting blind. He wants to go to showdown and doesn't look like the type of player to ever fold a better hand. He could be doing this with a straight draw that doesn't want to pay two and won't showdown, but I'm not terribly concerned about giving the free card given that's only a part of his range and two of his eight straight outs, if open-ended, and one of three, if gutshot, give you the better hand most of the time.

[StellarWind]

Default preflop: Fold UTG, Raise hijack.

Flop: Fold. A passive player has led out 3-handed, not heads-up. I doubt we have the best hand and certainly don't want to pay to try and prove it. Even if he has a draw he is apt to be a small favorite. All we have are junky overcards and backdoors on a dangerous board.

Turn: Others have said the obvious. The ace of flushes has hit and he has gone into turtle mode. Unless queen-high is unexpectly the best hand he won't be folding. Take the gift and you can decide about the river when you get there.

Turn checkraise: Fold. Pretty certain that he has the flush. That means 2-4 of your nine outs are dead because he is holding them or they complete a straight flush. Plus there is a nominal 22% chance that one of his spades is the king but given that he seems confident and he coldcalled preflop without AQ the real chance he has the king is probably over 50%.

Another possibility is this is a trick with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and some offsuit mystery card, possibly even an ace. Whatever the second card is you are behind with 0-5 outs and should fold.

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Default preflop: Fold UTG, Raise hijack.

[/ QUOTE ]
I fold UTG, raise from HJ. Is this converter funky or what? If he's UTG, and then two folds, then Button... is in the bathroom?

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
Opponent is 55/7/0.9 and 36/53 after 80 hands.

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks

Do we take the free card, or do we try to get him to fold whatever he holds? I don't see people fold a pair HU often, but it happens on occasions. Here we're likely to have a ton of outs in case he calls. Two problems with betting. He goes to showdown often, and he may check-raise us.

Also, do you raise QJo UTG in the average 5/10 game?

[/ QUOTE ]

*Grunch*

Bet the turn. He only has to fold 20 % of the time for this to be a break even play, and we have 9 outs to the 2nd nut flush, which should compensate for the number of times we're check-raised in this spot.

Can't answer for 5/10, but I consider QJo a marginal hand here. OK to raise, depending on table conditions and your postflop skills.

[LoaferGee12]

[ QUOTE ]
Check. His flop donk/turn check means he has 9x/6x/5x and wants to pay 2 bets to see showdown instead of 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

[POKhER]

I dont think he's folding so after reanalysing the hand i think i may take the free card actually.

He isn't folding so we must improve and i dont see us doing it often enough to call a river bet from him(Say he bets this river 100% to make it easier).

We must fold if we miss and can raise if we hit or call. Say we call.

We have AT MOST 9+6 outs so 15 being about 1 in 3, 30% we will win the pot and 60% we will lose it due to fold.

He'd have to fold 20% of time to make this +EV right? And i dont think he folds 1 in 5...

Also i said we have 15outs, prob have less and i also said he bets the river 100% which he probably doesnt. However i also said he wont fold and he may.

Meh i take the free card.

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
So I decided to bet. It didn't feel completely right since him betting the flop then checking the turn seems to be him wanting to go to showdown as cheap as possible. Slight chance of him trying something on the flop and now gave up, but not worth it.

Anyway, action went, check, bet, check-raise, call. Now the river brings the 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],
for a board of 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He checks. Now what? I can't really see any reason to bet here. Are there any?

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally baffled, which makes this a check for me.

After reading the replies, there are some convincing reasons to check the turn, but it seems close. His line is very confusing to me.

I can't figure out what this guy would have to play the hand this way. Maybe K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with a 5 or 6?

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
After reading the replies, there are some convincing reasons to check the turn, but it seems close.

[/ QUOTE ]
It seems close because you think he'll fold this turn one time out of five. I don't think he folds anywhere near that often.

[jba]

stellarwind is the only one to mention this so far but...

flop seems like an easy fold to me.

free card...I foresee a checkraise...