Snakes on a Plane

bobbyi · #1 11-02-2005, 04:03 AM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG (30/24/1.8) raises, Button (unknown) calls, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Button calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Button 3-bets, [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

New001 · #2 11-02-2005, 04:05 AM

I think I fold. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Equal · #3 11-02-2005, 05:42 AM

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I think I fold. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Nice avatar.

sthief09 · #4 11-02-2005, 04:27 AM

you know I respect you a lot, and you easily fall into the top 10 people whose hand posts I'm most likely to read because I know they'll be good. so you know I'm not taking a jab at you or anything. but I think you can learn most from hands like this by just analyzing it yourself. it's one of those hands that everyone talks about where you "do your thinking away from the table" since there's no way you can do that much math at the table. you want your instincts to be sharp.

so while I think it's a good hand to post because it's a tough spot, there's not much opinion involved. it's mostly hand reading. I think you and everyone else would learn most by starting people in a certain direction, like "what range of hands do you put them on" or something.

this isn't just for you. I think it's something that'll help everyone. you'd be amazed how much time I spend sitting in front of excel figuring out hands like this to sharpen my instincts.

if you want my opinion, I think it's a fold. if UTG has a set, you're in bad shape, and if the button or UTG has a straight you're also in bad shape. I'd imagine one of the two scenarios is going to be the case almost every time so you probably have 2 or 4 outs. when you're ahead, you probably only have 2/3 of the deck anyway. and the pot wasn't too big to start with.

please tell me if I'm out of line with my above comments. I'm just really big on the away from the table calcs because they give you a great feel for how close some situations are, and it's a lot more insightful then reading through peoples' opinions of why it's a call or why it's a fold.

jason_t · #5 11-02-2005, 04:36 AM

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this isn't just for you. I think it's something that'll help everyone. you'd be amazed how much time I spend sitting in front of excel figuring out hands like this to sharpen my instincts.

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Great post Josh.. Perhaps you could elaborate on what you do away from the table in front of Excel, using this hand as an example?

sthief09 · #6 11-02-2005, 04:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

this isn't just for you. I think it's something that'll help everyone. you'd be amazed how much time I spend sitting in front of excel figuring out hands like this to sharpen my instincts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post Josh.. Perhaps you could elaborate on what you do away from the table in front of Excel, using this hand as an example?

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after I fail my midterm tomorrow, but I'm sure you know what I mean here. make a range of hands, figure out your outs vs each, the number of combos, make some judgment weights for the combos, then do an EV calc. here I'd guess that it's significantly -EV to call, which is really nice to know in a situation that you think is close. the nice thing about excel is you can tweak the numbers. you can also see the factors that most affect the EV. one thing I learned from doing these is just how much only having 2 outs affects you when you have a pocket pair and aren't sure what do to.

jason_t · #7 11-02-2005, 04:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

this isn't just for you. I think it's something that'll help everyone. you'd be amazed how much time I spend sitting in front of excel figuring out hands like this to sharpen my instincts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post Josh.. Perhaps you could elaborate on what you do away from the table in front of Excel, using this hand as an example?

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after I fail my midterm tomorrow

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Me too. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] (Not a midterm, but yeah I'm supposed to know some [censored] by tomorrow that I don't.)

sthief09 · #8 11-02-2005, 04:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

this isn't just for you. I think it's something that'll help everyone. you'd be amazed how much time I spend sitting in front of excel figuring out hands like this to sharpen my instincts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post Josh.. Perhaps you could elaborate on what you do away from the table in front of Excel, using this hand as an example?

[/ QUOTE ]

after I fail my midterm tomorrow

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] (Not a midterm, but yeah I'm supposed to know some [censored] by tomorrow that I don't.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I added some to that

TStoneMBD · #9 11-02-2005, 03:23 PM

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make some judgment weights for the combos

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i didnt see that so if youre doing it right then i apologize. i would like to see you do this however and im sure if you put ample thought into judgment weights for each combo it will take a long time for each problem but will certainly result into becoming a much more sophisticated player.

id also like to say that if youre trying to revolutionize the forum by having people do ev calculations the way youd like them to then these threads should be about arguing hand ranges and judgment weights on those hand ranges, which is really what bobbyi is trying to do but in a less sophisticated way. youre right that the sophisticated way of doing these problems is much more accurate then the way they have historically been done.

id like to see your hand ranges and judgment weights on those hand ranges for this hand so i can agree/disagree with you on them.

#10 11-02-2005, 03:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
make some judgment weights for the combos

[/ QUOTE ]

i didnt see that so if youre doing it right then i apologize. i would like to see you do this however and im sure if you put ample thought into judgment weights for each combo it will take a long time for each problem but will certainly result into becoming a much more sophisticated player.

id also like to say that if youre trying to revolutionize the forum by having people do ev calculations the way youd like them to then these threads should be about arguing hand ranges and judgment weights on those hand ranges.

id like to see your hand ranges and judgment weights on those hand ranges for this hand so i can agree/disagree with you on them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to do these a lot but I'm thinking it was probably when I was posting in SS and you in MHS. as I said earlier, the nice thing about excel is you can tweak the numbers to see the effect on EV. let's say it's someone's opinion that he only raises QJo 50% of the time preflop, while I think he raises it 100%. I can cut the combinations in half and see what the affect on EV is. I can also plot it on a graph and see how EV changes by the changes in combinations for each hand.

I agree with what you say about hand ranges being the most important thing. that's why in my first post I ended it with something like "what do you think his range of hands is." and baron responded that hand reading is so critical and I agree. but knowing how these hand ranges affect the EV is huge. one thing I've learned from doing this is how screwed you are in hands like this because there are 16 clean combinations of QJ. it's generally unreasonable to put someone specifically on a set, while straights on boards like this are extremely common given the action.

I'm about to go on a bus so I'll try to do it there. I might just PM or email it to interested people because I got banned again for a terrible reason and I'm pissed.

I'll be in vegas too btw