Making it unprofitable for opponents to draw

#1 12-10-2005, 02:39 AM

I've been reading "Small Stakes Hold'em", focusing on improving my post-flop play. I'm trying to figure out how to properly protect a dominant but vulnerable hand against draws, and doing the math, it seems in most cases you can't really make it unprofitable for opponents not to draw.

For example, say I flop top pair or two-pair, a hand I'm sure will win if it isn't outdrawn. There are 6 players, and the the pot has 6 bets in it. Say two spades came on the flop, and I'm pretty sure one of my opponents has two spades and is on a flush draw. I know I need to aggressively protect my hand, but, the fact of the matter is the pot already has 6 bets in it. If it's a bet to the opponent on the flush draw, he has a 1 in 5 chance of hitting his flush on the turn and winning x6 bets - so calling is the right decision for him at this point. Now, I could raise him, and say that convinces two players after me to fold, but the rest call, so now there are 4 players total remaining. The pot now has 13 bets in it, and it's back to him. Now he must pay 1 bet for the chance to win x13, with a 1 in 5 chance of hitting his draw on the river. Still a profitable decision for him; me raising did nothing to make calling unprofitable for him.

So what am I missing? When is raising to protect your hand against draws effective?

QTip · #2 12-10-2005, 02:51 AM

Linky

That was from a while back. Basically, in theory of poker, this topic is discussed in pages 70-75 or so.

There are times when you can't make someone drawing get the worst of it to call. However, you still need to make it as expensive as you can for them to do so.

QTip · #3 12-10-2005, 02:59 AM

I should have added an example where you can make it unprofitable. You gave an example with someone with 9 outs or so. That's a big draw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Say in your example, there were 6 opponents for 6 sb to the flop. You're UTG and sb bets, BB calls and you have tptk. MP has a gutshot for 4 outs to the nuts. Now, when you raise, the pot is 10:2 for him, and he certainly would get the worst of it to call. However, if you didn't raise, it would be 9:1 to him and considering implied odds, he certainly can call there.

Harv72b · #4 12-10-2005, 04:05 AM

In the briefest nutshell possible, the more bets you force a drawing opponent to call, the less money he makes on his draw (even when it's still a +EV call for him to make). Therefore, the more money you make on your made hand. Limit poker is often weird that way, where two (or more) people can make +EV bets or calls in the same pot, so it really just comes down to who has the most current equity in the pot when the chips go in.

xwillience · #5 12-10-2005, 04:42 AM

also your never going to get a bad player to even consider odds. all he sees is 4 to a flush or 4 to a str8. I hear them all the time use str8 draw interchangebly between a gutshot and OESD. In some cases if you feel you have a solid read on a player and i know hes going to draw no matter what, you can wait till the turn to push them around a little bit. That way you will make them make even worse decisions if it doesnt come on the turn and get away if it does. The key is to face them with as many bets as you can, Forcing them to call one bet twice is just building a pot.