Raising AK on Button, rags, now what?

[elindauer]

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J9 hits a lot of hands people play. Even if no one has a pair, someone will often have a gutshot or OESD.

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This is exactly my point. On this flop, it is unlikely that a bet will win the pot. Your bet doesn't gain you a lot of information either, since a call or a raise could come from a better or worse hand.

Just take the free card and play poker on the turn. Build up a little tight equity that you can use to steal a pot in the future with a flop bet, by showing your opponents that if you do bet the flop, you have something more than just a hand worth a raise 3 cards ago.

Put another way, if you bet this flop, can you conceive of a flop with this many players that you would not bet? The conditions here seem nearly perfect for checking, ie...

- the flop connects with lots of hands, but not yours
- a check definitely gets a free card

-eric

[Oblivious]

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with the J9 flop and 3 callers in a low limit game, you're probably better off checking. There are several keys to this hand:

1) you are unlikely to win the pot with a flop bet.
2) you probably do not have the best hand, since... most players check to the raiser, expecting him to bet

don't bet someone else's hand. You're in a multiway pot, have only overcards on a flop that connects with lots of hands, and have been offered a free card. Take it.

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J9 hits a lot of hands people play. Even if no one has a pair, someone will often have a gutshot or OESD. If an 8, T or Q comes on the turn, reevaluate. You may want to bail unless you pick up a gutshot and can continue for one bet.

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Horrible advice.

Take a free card, to pick up a draw, which you can’t profitably call, then evaluate weather or not you should call it. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
Don’t do this.

You have six out for TPTK, which means a lot of consolation pot equity, even if they call. But you can’t profitably call a turn bet with this pot equity. Let’s look at the two scenarios:

1. You check. On the turn you pick up an inside straight draw. Now you’re facing a bet on the turn. You may be getting anywhere from 7:1 to 9:1, but most likely 7:1. You only have 4 clean outs, since your pair outs now put four to a straight on the board. If you hit the nut straight, you might get 2 big bets on the end against your lone opponent. When you hit a pair and win (rare), you get 1 big bet. Your pair outs have about 0.25 big bets equity. You can’t call an 11.5:1 shot to get paid 9.25:1. You have to fold the turn. You just saved 0.50 big bets by not betting the flop.

2. You bet and get one to three callers. They check the turn and you check the turn behind them, saving 1 big bet, but costing 0.50 big bets on the flop, for a grand savings of 0.50 big bets.

Scenario one gets you to the turn. Scenario two gets you to the river. Your opponent has to bet the river (sometimes he won't), only then you decide if you want to call or not.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Continuation bet and go from there. If called, I usually bet the turn too.

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I play this line most of the time. It might be wrong for the hand I'm in more often than I admit, but I love it from a session long viewpoint. I keep up as the aggressor. (It's better to be feared than loved in limit hold'em.) I'll play my overpairs and sets the same way. Hence, if I'm playing the made hand and excellent drawing hand the same way, my opponents will have trouble knowing where I'm at in a hand.

[mack848]

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[mack848]

Betting this flop seems to me to be +EV.

You are investing 0.5BB. This is often going to buy you 2 chances to hit your 5-6 outs and likely win a 5-6BB pot. Add in the (albeit small) chance that they all fold and you pick up 4-4.5BB on the flop and I think it more than compensates you for the times you have to fold to a check/raise, or when bet into on the turn.