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Old 11-29-2005, 11:11 AM
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Default Should I raise on the river here?

stakes - $.5/$1

button - $86
villian sb - $203
hero bb - $99

The villian is a passive player that does not always bet top pair, and I haven't seen him bluff or semi-bluff.

Dealt to hero: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
sb $.5 and bb $1 posted

button - calls $1
villian (sb) - completes $.5
hero (bb) - checks

Flop ($2.85)- 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

villian - checks
hero - bets $2
button - folds
villian - raises to $4
hero - calls

I didn't put the villian on the flush draw because he is not that aggressive, he definately has a hand. I think he could have had top pair, overpair, two pair, set, or a straight. The only flush draw would be something like A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Since I didn't think the flush was a threat I didn't raise because I want him to bet out the turn and I don't want to reveal the strength of my hand yet.

Turn A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain - $5.4
Hero - Calls

He couldn't have had A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] because the ace hit. But he could have had 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and something else of [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I didn't think it was likely. Maybe he hit is ace here for two pair. I didn't raise here because I wanted him to bet out the river but maybe that isn't such a good idea because the 4 flush could hit.

River ($10.45)- K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villian - bets $7.1
Hero - raises to $20

With the ace and the king falling and him betting the river means he definately has more than one pair. And this is the point of the post because he is a very passive player. In hindsight for a passive player to even bet out ~2/3 the pot on the river with such a dangerous board he must really have a hand. I could have the flush here for all he knows. Only the flush and the nut straight beat me here. One pair has been ruled out. So the problem is would he bet out and then call a raise with two pair, a set, or the low straight (if he would complete the small blind with 34). The question to ask is: if he calls can I win at least %50 of the time. I didn't have a lot of time to consider it and I didn't want to be weak so I raised on the river.

Any advice or comments?
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  #2  
Old 11-29-2005, 11:14 AM
4_2_it 4_2_it is offline
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Default Re: Should I raise on the river here?

3-bet the flop and push if he 4-bets. If villain is this passive he is not on a draw. If your read is correct you should try to get the money in the middle by betting raising as much as posible.
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Old 11-29-2005, 11:26 AM
pho75 pho75 is offline
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Default Re: Should I raise on the river here?

I think you are better more than 50% of the time if you can rule out the flush. There are 12 ways to make the nut str8 and 18 ways to make a set on the flop. Not to mention the times he will call with 2 pair.
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Old 11-29-2005, 12:05 PM
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Default Re: Should I raise on the river here?

I like your thinking here a lot. I agree their is 12 ways to make the nut straight. Isn't there 9 ways to make a set on the flop ? And 15 ways to make a set including the turn and river?

I guess you could count 7-x of diamonds. And I think there are 9 ways to have that hand on the river.

Let's assume that he always completes the small blind and all hands are equally likely. (probably not true)

Let's also assume he doesn't call with two pair on the river. The only two pair he might call with is one with aces. So let's just say he only calls when he has aces and sevens. (because i don't think he would raise on the flop with mid or low pair and I don't think he would have bet the turn with k-7)

Going with your idea:
He calls (or raises) and I lose -
12 ways with the nut straight
9 ways with the flush (7-x diamonds)
Total - 21 ways

He calls and loses -
12 ways - set (Let's say he doesn't bet kk on the turn - passive)
9 ways - aces and sevens
Total - 21 ways

He could reraise on a bluff, so you need better than 50-50 to raise but since he is passive I can discount that factor somewhat. Looks pretty close.
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