LIMIT ROI SIMULATOR

[rvg72]

So a few months ago I created an ROI simulator for SNG's
ROI Simulator Thread

I have now done the same for Limit using a similar technique that provides much more insite than simply looking at BB/100 and Standard Deviation to try and determine probabilities (although they play a key part in the simulation itself)



So, an explanation. On the left of the screen you see a percentage breakdown for each win amount and loss amount (and break even amount) for a hand. This will be different for each person based on playing style. By default I have entered data from an imaginary 1.14BB/100 player but feel free to edit these numbers. As you edit the numbers the "Actual BB/100" number will change.

In the middle of the screen there are some instructions and a button saying "Get from PT". I haven't done this yet but the idea is that it will open your Poker Tracker DB and based on criteria you set (date range, player / alias, limit $, number of players at table etc) it will grab your data and fill in the section on the left. This by itself might provide some insite for people.

On the right side you see you can enter in the number of hands to simulate and the number of simulations. If you want to see the likelihood of certain results over a 100,000 hand stretch then enter 100,000 for hands. The number of simulations is the number of times the app will run through the simulation. 1000 hands and 1000 simulations takes a fraction of a second - don't go crazy here right off the bat and enter 5,000,000 hands and 1000 simulations because it will take a long time depending on the speed of your computer.

Once it had simulated the results it display your total profit in big bets from each simulation sorted highest to lowest and your biggest drop in big bets from largest to lowest.

So, looking at the above screenshot, out of 1000 simulations the best result this guy had over 1000 hands was +227.5 big bets. You can't see this from the screen shots but going down the list you would see 594 of the 1000 made a profit so this player has a 59.4% chance to profit over 1000 hands.

As far as the largest drop, to see the expected largest drop then go to the middle amount. In this case, with 1000 sims, the middle amount is 500 and you can see the largest drop was 59 units so that is what this guy should expect his typical biggest drop to be over 1000 hands. The worst drop in this example was 198.5 units but you can't see that from the screen shot.

You can use these numbers to draw various conclusions. For example, if you want to see the liklihood of this player dropping 100 units over 1000 hands it would be 12.8% since 128 of 1000 simulations had a largest drop of 100 or more units.

I'm going to add the Poker Tracker piece but for now give me your feedback.

General disclaimers apply and if you are worried that this software sends me your hole cards then block it in your firewall - it will never contact anybody about anything but for your own piece of mind there are steps you can take.

Oh yeah! I need a palce to host this! If anybody has some FTP space then please let me know. It is only 72KB.

It does require the .NET Framework 1.1 which can be downloaded here if you don't have it:

.NET Framework 1.1

rvg

[rvg72]

OK, I found a home for it:

ROI Sim Link

[bigalt]

neat, i love toys like this. unfortunately i lost my pokertracker databases last week so i don't have any batteries for it yet.

[El Tigre]

where in PT can you find stats like on how many pots u lost from 0-1 bets?

[BarkingMad]

This looks cool.

Is it a Monte Carlo simulation?

What will you charge for it after the PT functionality is added?

[newhizzle]

i really like this idea

will you be charging for it, and if so, how much?

edit: nevermind, i see that i can download it right now

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
i really like this idea

will you be charging for it, and if so, how much?

[/ QUOTE ]

No charge - it only took a couple of hours to put together and the poker tracker piece will probably take a couple more. Hopefully people get some value from it.

rvg

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks cool. Is it a Monte Carlo simulation?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope - just a pure random number simulation based on frequency of previous results which should give a pretty accurate range of possible results (assuming the frequency data that is entered is accurate of course)

[ QUOTE ]

What will you charge for it after the PT functionality is added?

[/ QUOTE ]

No charge for this or for the SNG ROI simulator I built before. Just giving back a little to the 2+2 community and they were both knocked off fairly quickly.

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
where in PT can you find stats like on how many pots u lost from 0-1 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to write a query against the database - every hand ever played by anyone is stored in there so if you take just your hands and subtract the amount won by the amount wagered and divide that by the limit then you get that number. From there you can throw all fo the results into Excel and sort it and then count the rows in between 0 and 1. Doing it manually isn't too much fun. I'll have the poker tracker import version update in the next few days when I can find a couple of free hours to finish this off.

rvg