DOTTT's 2005 NFL pick thread

[DOTTT]

I’ll be using a system I developed to bet football this season, however it doesn’t start making plays until week 3. I still like some of this weeks lines so I’ll venture out on my own. My bankroll is $10,000 and I’ll be placing 5% of my roll on every game. I know, I know there's a good chance I’ll go broke but gambol has always been in me so I’m willing to take the risk in hopes of maximizing my profits. I’ll post every bet I make in hopes of learning from mistakes, and getting better at this. So here goes.

Detroit –1 at Chicago

You can get this at –111 right now on Pinnacle.

Risking $500 to win $445

Chargers –3 at Broncos

Right now the most avaliable line is at –120 in most places.

Risking $500 to win $400

[RunDownHouse]

Jesus, your system vig takes into account? Good luck overcoming that.

[DOTTT]

That should be Chargers +3.

Atlanta pk at Seattle

I'm taking the Falcons here. The only explnation I have for this line is that the Seahawks have played the falcons historically well. Winning 4 of their last 5 meetings. However, most of these games were pre Michael Vick, and I think the Seahawks speed challanged defense is gonna have a hard time stopping him. Also IMO the Seahawks are the team to fade this year.

Risking $500 to win $525

[DOTTT]

Also taking the Rams at +1 over the Cardinals.

This is mostly a play on a good trend that involves taking a team that was a favorite by 6+ points, which lost SU but outgained their opponet in total yards by 100+. The Rams outagined the 9ers in total yards by almost a two to one margin. If it wasn't for their horrible special teams unit, they win this game. I look for the Rams to get things togather in week 2.

Risking $500 to win $500.

[DOTTT]

Adding Raiders/Chiefs under 54.5.

Risking $500 to win $450.

Also I only see this line avaliable on mybookie.

[whipsaw]

Bodog also has that line

[lorinda]

WSEX too.

Lori

[DOTTT]

YTD: 2-2-1
BR: $9950

[ QUOTE ]
This is mostly a play on a good trend that involves taking a team that was a favorite by 6+ points, which lost SU but outgained their opponet in total yards by 100+.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like a good trend, but any idea how often it occurs?

what is SU?