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  #1  
Old 12-21-2005, 10:06 PM
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Default Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?

Hey guys. This was my most recent tournament and on the first hand I picked up A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the SB. About 6 (maybe even 7) people limped so lets say there was ~120 chips in the pot when the action got to me.
I raised it to 200 total and the BB immediately went all in for his 800. Folded around to me and I called getting about 2:1 odds. He showed KK and no ace came so he won.

The question I ask is, do we call this 100% of the time? This was the first hand of the tournament so I clearly had no read on my opponent but I tried to narrow his hand range down to an estimation:

AA or KK about 40% of the time
22-QQ about 25 % of the time
AK about 25 % of the time
Any other two about 10% of the time

Are these estimations about accurate? I mean, at this level I have seen people put their whole stack in preflop on the first hand with KJo and even worse. Especially in this type of situation, where there is a lot of dead money in the pot, do people decide to become the madd bluffer.

Any advice is greatly appreciated.
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  #2  
Old 12-21-2005, 10:08 PM
EasilyFound EasilyFound is offline
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Default Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?

If you're getting 2-1 odds, why wouldn't you call?
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Old 12-21-2005, 10:14 PM
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Default Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?

[ QUOTE ]
If you're getting 2-1 odds, why wouldn't you call?

[/ QUOTE ]
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Old 12-21-2005, 11:01 PM
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Default Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?

If you are willing to coinflip the first hand of an STT, why not just play roulette instead? Less rake.
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  #5  
Old 12-21-2005, 11:12 PM
AceRat138 AceRat138 is offline
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Default Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?

gh Bazuul.
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  #6  
Old 12-22-2005, 01:48 AM
tjh tjh is offline
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Default Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?

[ QUOTE ]
If you're getting 2-1 odds, why wouldn't you call?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are willing to coinflip the first hand of an STT, why not just play roulette instead? Less rake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope the thinking members of the audience can figure this one out for themselves.

Suppose you have a coinflip game where you win $10 when you win and lose $5 when you lose. After a hundred "games" how much money do you have ?

First hand is crazy land. How you choose to play this hand is up to you. For those opposed to the call, how do you play this hand ??

As for gambling early. It can be nice to get some of the total idiots chips before someone else does.

Also we lose half of our tournies in the long run anyhow. So if you are going to lose it is best to do it early.

[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]
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Old 12-22-2005, 01:56 AM
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Default Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?

I want to say insta call but i see AA-KK sOOOO often come out of this line. It's so obvious. That said, since AA-KK is shown so often, is 2-1 really a good price here? Don't get me wrong, I will usually call, but your gonna get shown AA-KK most of the time, from my observations. I'd say about 65% at the most conservative estimate. I dont know though, its seems more like 80% of the time to me.
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Old 12-22-2005, 01:59 AM
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Default Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?

does anyone have sufficient data to determine the amount of times you are shown AA-KK out of this line?
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  #9  
Old 12-22-2005, 02:03 AM
tjh tjh is offline
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Default Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?

[ QUOTE ]
I want to say insta call but i see AA-KK sOOOO often come out of this line. It's so obvious. That said, since AA-KK is shown so often, is 2-1 really a good price here? Don't get me wrong, I will usually call, but your gonna get shown AA-KK most of the time, from my observations. I'd say about 65% at the most conservative estimate. I dont know though, its seems more like 80% of the time to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, are we playing at the same site ?? Do you have PokerTracker? Can you post some data to support this wild hypothesis that the players are good ??

I have hand histories of all-ins in the first level with K-4. These can not be the same players.

You remember the AA-KK and confirmation bias clouds your judgement perhaps?
--
tjh
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  #10  
Old 12-22-2005, 02:11 AM
xJMPx xJMPx is offline
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Default Re: Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?

I think he's talking specifically about the limp-push line taken here by the villain. But I've seen it often enough by mid-pairs to say it's probably not AA/KK 80%.

As for this hand, I dunno...with your line I think I would go ahead and call after committing 1/4 of my stack. However, I think there could be an argument to just limping with all the preflop limps infront and play this as a drawing hand.
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